Earthquake Question

Re: Earthquake Question

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:39:55 +0000

What Juju said. Also, from the USGS FAQs page, we expect about 18 quakes of magnitude 7.0-7.9 each year. In 1970 and 1971, we had 20 and 21 respectively. An average is calculated from all the values, so it is approximately in the middle. The actual midpoint value is the median, but I don't think you're looking for a long explanation of statistics. Suffice it to say that the calculated average is around the midpoint, with most either above or below it. It wouldn't be a matter of concern if we had a number in the 20s this year. That would be within the range of past measured magnitude 7-7.9 quakes per year.
We also have about 4000 seismograph stations now, as compared to about 350 in 1931. With instant communications around the world and the heightened interest in earthquakes, we are now hearing about all of them immediately. We have only had the ability to locate and accurately measure quakes for about 100 years, which is a miniscule fraction of geological time. We would have no way of knowing if there had been years with 30 or 40 quakes in this range before we were able to detect and measure them.

Re: Earthquake Question

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 01:05:19 +0000

Jessica, don't pay attention to doomsayers on Yahoo. The earth experiences thousands of earthquakes per yer. Indonesia sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is where some 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. There has been nothing unusual about seismic activity this year, and actual scientists don't expect anything unusual leading up to 2012. There's no reason to, because all the 2012 doomsday and disaster claims are fiction.

NASA's David Morrison has actually been fielding 2012-related questions at Ask an Astrobiologist for quite some time. NASA doesn't discuss earthquakes in particular, because it is a space agency. 2012 claims in general have been addressed to any reasonable extent, in my opinion.

Scientists with NASA and other organizations are really in a catch-22 with 2012. If they don't say anything, doomsayers accuse them of covering up the "truth." If they do say something about it, doomsayers accuse them of lying to cover up the "truth." Aside from costing a lot of money that NASA probably doesn't have, a television special is unlikely to be of much help. It might even make the doomsayers and conspiracy theorists crazier.

Edit:

I realize that Indonesia is in the Ring of FIre and prone to quakes…ALso isn't the average of 7.0-7.9 quakes 15 yearly and we are at 17 or 18 now??

An average, by definition, will have half the values below the mean and half of them above it. Seventeen, eighteen or even a few more quakes is not anything out of the ordinary. We've also only kept records for about a century, which on geologic time scales really isn't long enough to glean any meaningful trends from such an average.

(no title)

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 01:03:18 +0000

It's Yahoo Jessica don't take them seriously they overreact towards everything.

(no title)

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:59:10 +0000

Really, there's no "average", because it's difficult for anyone to say how many will occur in one year, compared to another year.

There may be a few extra or, a few less.

David Morrison seems to be the only one from NASA stepping in. Someone may want to correct me if I'm wrong.

Earthquakes are no worse or, any better than any point in our history, there's no signs of a doomsday just because the Earth's surface likes to rumble, in fact, I would be very worried if the Earth's surface never rumbled again.

(no title)

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:52:49 +0000

I realize that Indonesia is in the Ring of FIre and prone to quakes…ALso isn't the average of 7.0-7.9 quakes 15 yearly and we are at 17 or 18 now??

Earthquake Question

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:43:34 +0000

So, I read this article and then looked at the comments. A lot are saying that it's because the end is near and earthquakes are supposed to lead up to a huge on in 2012 or something. Why do people automatically go there? I mean, yall know how scared I am of this stuff. I was actually feeling a little better today, then BAMM! here it can rushing back. Why can't NASA have a special on TV or something and discuss this since they are so concerned with people harming themselves due to this "hoax"?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100929/ap_on_re_as/as_indonesia_earthquake