Asteroids / Discussion

This is the discussion related to the wiki page Asteroids.

David Morrison - Mission to Apophis

RickardM 01 Aug 2010 01:40

Found this excellent video of Morrison talking about impact prevention and asteroid missions (focuses on Apophis): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI0Rf0kyFSE

I'm not sure if Apophis is still being linked to 2012, but it's a really good speech nevertheless=)

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

3WMElliott 27 Aug 2010 00:32

The video I've added is well worth 3 minutes of your time. As for it's position on the page, the wording, well that can be tweaked. But the video - eye opener. Space is both insanely empty and insanely full, but still insanely empty. It's weird, it's awesome.

UndeadxNurse 28 Aug 2010 20:02

Actually, people have attempted to link Apophis to 2012, but those attempts were thoroughly debunked, many of the attempts were made in Yahoo! Answers, it seems.

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Wie Sie säen, so sollst du ernten.

Webgod (guest) 02 Mar 2011 18:34

Few questions:

We do not even know for sure how is the orbit of Apophis, we do not know its size for sure, and we do not even know how far it will be from Earth in 2013/2029/2036. How could you be so sure that it won't hit Earth in any of these years? What if the gravity of Earth pulls the asteroid back to near-Earth?

Is there an asteroid that will hit Earth in 2019?

I saw that every ~100,000 years (course, not sure), a big asteroid hits Earth and a global catastrophe happens. So, isn't 100,000 a very short range of years?

I am quite concerned about asteroids. Heeellllppppp!

This is not a rant. Sorry if this post seems like one, but I am not an astrology or chemistry or physics expert.

Tomy2011 02 Mar 2011 18:47

We do not even know for sure how is the orbit of Apophis, we do not know its size for sure, and we do not even know how far it will be from Earth in 2013/2029/2036.

Does 1+1=2? Does 2^3=8? Therefore, Apophis won't hit Earth in 2013, or 2029 or 2036.

What if the gravity of Earth pulls the asteroid back to near-Earth?

No, it can't "pull it back to near-Earth". The astronomers already calculated this, if truth. But it's impossible.

Is there an asteroid that will hit Earth in 2019?

Hrnnn… in 2002, they thought that an asteroid will hit Earth in this year, but that's highly unlikely. Maybe a Red Flying Tyrannosaurus will kill me before 2019.

I saw that every ~100,000 years (course, not sure), a big asteroid hits Earth and a global catastrophe happens. So, isn't 100,000 a very short range of years?

"Global catastrophe" doesn't mean "imminent annihilation". The global warming is somewhat a global catastrophe, but it's not an "imminent annihilation". It doesn't mean we'll die within 100 years because the world will be very hot.
It seems that 100,000 years is a short range of years, but it's not very short. And there's no pattern in this case, and the next asteroid can hit us in 2200, 2100, next year or in 2300. 100 years isn't significant in astronomical time.

This is not a rant. Sorry if this post seems like one, but I am not an astrology or chemistry or physics expert.

I don't think this is a rant, but read the pages before posting. And… "astrology"? Did you mean "astronomy"? Hrmm…

obaeyens 02 Mar 2011 20:24

What if the gravity of Earth pulls the asteroid back to near-Earth?

Even though the orbit of any object is curved, gravitational forces is very precise. It is more precise and reliable than a train on retail tracks. Gravity calculations is as predictable and precise as your grandfathers clock weights.

The size is irrelevant, the mass is and if we have a teeny weenie miscalculation of its mass then it won't even get close to Earth because it will be here too soon or too late and completely miss Earth.

obaeyens 02 Mar 2011 20:30

You have to understand, Earth moves at a speed of 30 km/s. Apophis near Earth about 26 km/s I though. We are talking about a few minutes too soon or too late and it completely misses Earth. All what is required to change the orbit of Apophis is a few tonnes of dead weight mass on that asteroid and that will alter more than enough the orbit to be completely out of the way.

bikenbeer2000 02 Mar 2011 20:31

We do not even know for sure how is the orbit of Apophis

We know it pretty accurately.

we do not know its size for sure

Not very big. About 270 metres diameter.

and we do not even know how far it will be from Earth in 2013/2029/2036. How could you be so sure that it won't hit Earth in any of these years?

2013: Minimum distance between 14,460,217 km and 14,460,517 km.
2029: Minimum distance between 37,527 km and 38,608 km.
2036: We don't know yet, but almost certainly a long way off.
The above figures are obtained from JPL here.

What if the gravity of Earth pulls the asteroid back to near-Earth?

The above calculations are based on the laws of gravity. We know how gravity works. There's no 'what if' about it.

Is there an asteroid that will hit Earth in 2019?

There is no known asteroid on a collision course with the Earth.

I saw that every ~100,000 years (course, not sure), a big asteroid hits Earth and a global catastrophe happens. So, isn't 100,000 a very short range of years?
I am quite concerned about asteroids. Heeellllppppp!

There is a vastly greater probability that you will die in a road traffic accident or of heart disease than from an asteroid. You are considerably more likely to be hit by lightning. If you're going to worry, then worry about some of the more mundane things in life.