Yellowstone / Discussion

This is the discussion related to the wiki page Yellowstone.

Erik (guest) 27 Feb 2011 00:09

I do not know what to do. I am so scared.
Just saw a doc. on Discovery Channel about 2012. They said that Yellowstone is about to blow up. The Yellowstone has a cycle of eruptions. The last one was 640,000 years ago and the next eruption is about to happen.
The doc. claims the eruption will happen in 2012. I do not agree with this claim, but is it true Yellowstone is about to blow up? What would happen then?

According to the doc.:

"The ash will be destructive. We won't be able see the sun even at noon and this will cause a volcanic winter. The entire country (US) will be destroyed after the eruption."

Not Yellowstone-related, but:

"A very strong CME will happen, destroy satellites and provoke power outages. Our magnetosphere won't be able to stop the CME because it will be weak. The power outages will continue for 5 or 10 years. It will be destructive for us."

Ahhh! LOL For God/Jesus/Virgin Mary's sake!! Why I turned on my TV!?

Sorry if I somehow frightened anyone here.

bikenbeer2000 27 Feb 2011 00:15

All total bunk, as you can read here and here.

DieselHorseLAW 27 Feb 2011 00:19

The last Yellowstone super eruption was 640,000 years ago, that is true. From what I have read though it isn't on any kind of "schedule" so there is really no truth in saying it is "overdue" for an eruption. There was an eruption sooner, about 70,000 years ago, but it was not a "super eruption". What those mockumenteries do is throw out worst case scenario talking about a super eruption, whereas even if it does erupt again anytime soon or at all for that matter then there is no reason to think that it WILL be a super eruption, it could very well be a smaller eruption. The word "overdue" seems to get thrown around a lot with claims with things that aren't on a schedule. As far as the CME thing, there is a hint of truth to that whereas a CME could disrupt our electrical grid, but it is really over hyped on programs like that. Our electrical grids have built in defenses, but they still need to be better defended. Regardless power outages do not equal doomsday. People have lived without power for a long time before it was invented, and if need be, people can do it again for a short period of time.

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“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde

Tomy2011 27 Feb 2011 02:35

Just saw a doc. on Discovery Channel about 2012.

And the reason for everything is just around the corner.

The Yellowstone has a cycle of eruptions.

Almost. The "cycle" isn't a perfect cycle. The volcano doesn't say "today, at 6 pm, I will blow up, because at this same time I blew up 640,000 years ago". No, it's not what happens. Furthermore, the Yellowstone caldera is currently calm.

The last one was 640,000 years ago and the next eruption is about to happen.

There is no evidence of an eruption anytime soon.
About the CMEs, I'd like to say something too. We have a magnetosphere that protects us from this phenomenon. It acts like a shield by blocking the radiation. We also have our atmosphere that protects us as well. Neither the magnetosphere and atmosphere are weak. We're safe.

Now, the "bum!". I watched the same documentary as you did and it is scary (I watched it some months ago). The producers are so, but so dumb that now, I just have to laugh at them. They are silly. They are known to sometimes claim pseudoscience.

Alene Y 27 Feb 2011 04:46

There have only been 3 caldera forming eruptions at Yellowstone. That means only 2 intervals to calculate an "average" from. These 2 intervals are vastly different, 800,000 yrs and 660,000 yrs, meaning that no valid average time between these eruptions can be calculated. The USGS says we are at least 70,000 years away from even considering Yellowstone to be due, much less overdue, for another. Even if you wanted to choose the lowest of the 2 intervals, ignoring the longer one, we would still be 20,000 years away from that.
The most likely type of eruption that would be expected to occur would be steam, and the next likely would be lava flow. A caldera forming eruption (supereruption as the sensationalists like to say) isn't even on the radar for a very very long time.

The CME claim is also false. We can't predict those either and our magnetic field won't be noticebly weaker next year than now. We just had one less than 2 weeks ago. Did you notice all the power outages and mass destruction? Neither did I.

You didn't scare me, but you need to stop watching those schlockumentaries and going to crackpot websites because they're obviously scaring you.

Tomy2011 27 Feb 2011 19:10

Never a guy that works for some of these documentaries channels come here and tried to convince us that 2012 is true. And I wonder why…
They know we are right and they are wrong. They do not want to be humiliated in this forum. ;-) By the way, I think Histeria Channel stoped airing woo documentaries about 2012.

Last edited on 27 Feb 2011 19:10 by Tomy2011 Show more

bikenbeer2000 27 Feb 2011 21:19

Never a guy that works for some of these documentaries channels come here and tried to convince us that 2012 is true. And I wonder why…

They probably don't believe it's true and they don't have to.
All they need to believe is that broadcasting it will make them money.

Erik (guest) 27 Feb 2011 21:14

Thank you for the answers guys.
After the documentary I realized how much in danger we're. Asteroid strike, Gamma Ray Burst, Solar flares (if it is very strong, our magnetosphere won't be able to protect us, nor our atmosphere), rogue black holes, supernovae, aliens, etc, etc. On Earth, supervolcanoes (there are tens of supervolcanoes on Earth!), crustal displacement, nuclear war, nanotechnology etc, etc……….

Are we in trouble? There are SO many disasters that can happen AT ANY TIME! Is any of these disasters about to happen during our lifetimes? I'm very concerned.

Erik (guest) 27 Feb 2011 21:16

Harold Camping, Apophis, Maya, 2058, 2012, 2014, 2011, 2029, 2036!!! So many dates and predictions and events… And the Oort Cloud, full with asteroids, ready to attack us!! That's really terrible.

Erik (guest) 27 Feb 2011 21:17

Sorry, "full of".

TheGreatJuju 27 Feb 2011 21:56

Wow, Erik, you need to calm down.

We're not in danger of an asteroid strike, at least not right now.

Gamma ray burst? Well, if you're going to lose sleep over something that unlikely in the first place, there probably isn't anything I can type that will help you.

Solar flares that our magnetic field and atmosphere won't be able to handle? What? Who told you that nonsense?

Rogue black holes? Seriously? Where?

Supernovae? Again, where? Which star do you think is going to explode as a supernova and pose even the remotest threat to life on Earth?

Aliens? Seriously? Are you also afraid of orcs?

Supervolcanoes are just a fact of life. Two have erupted during the time of man, both before humans had the technology and medicine that we have today, but we're still here.

Crustal displacement is a myth.

Nuclear war — between who, and why?

Nanotechnology — why is that something to be afraid of? Are you also afraid of vaccines and AI?

Are we in trouble?

In terms of an imminent global cataclysm, no.

There are SO many disasters that can happen AT ANY TIME!

And you're just realizing this now? Really, man, that's not news. You could be hit by a bus tomorrow. Actually, I suspect that you being hit by a bus driven by Robin Williams, while Ashton Kutcher and Halle Berry car-surf on the roof, is many times more likely than any of the "disasters" you've mentioned.

Is any of these disasters about to happen during our lifetimes?

See above.

I'm very concerned.

Why?

Harold Camping

He's a discredited religious zealot and an idiot.

Apophis

1 in 250,000 chance in 2036, likely to decrease further as calculation refinements are made. Not large enough to do more than regional damage in the extremely unlikely event of an impact, and plenty of warning will be available. We're talking about it now, for godsake.

Maya

What about them?

http://www.2012hoax.org/mayan-prediction
http://www.2012hoax.org/mayan-calendar

2058, 2012, 2014, 2011, 2029, 2036!!! So many dates and predictions and events…

Yes, so many.

http://www.abhota.info

And the Oort Cloud, full with asteroids, ready to attack us!!

Don't be ridiculous. Pardon me for saying so, but your posts are hard to take seriously, even though I've replied under the working assumption that they are, in fact, serious.

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"They tell you, but do you believe it? If so, why?"

http://www.undeadrufus.com

Last edited on 27 Feb 2011 22:00 by TheGreatJuju Show more

Tomy2011 27 Feb 2011 21:31

Harold Camping

The silly guy of the silly radio.

Apophis

The object "nothing-to-do-with-us".

Maya

The blameless people.

2058

Harold Camping's second prediction.

2012

You know it's wrong.

2014

The world cup here. Yay!

2011

Harold Camping's worst year.

2029

The year we'll look at the sky, see Apophis, the doomsayers running to the shelters and cheer!

2036

The year the world has a 1/250000 chances of end. Oh, "likely"… ham!

And the Oort Cloud, full with asteroids, ready to attack us!!

Hahaha! The Oort cloud won't "throw" a asteroid toward Earth. It's not how it works.

obaeyens 27 Feb 2011 23:20

Erik, first step first.
Start to read a real science book. learn some maths.
Start to understand what 10^12 means:

(1)

\begin{equation} 10^{12} = 1,000,000,000,000 \end{equation}

Also try to understand understand what 1/250,000 means: This means 249,999 failures to hit earth.
Once you understand basic maths and science you automatically laugh big time because the scary claims are so silly.

bikenbeer2000 28 Feb 2011 00:07

Harold Camping, Apophis, Maya, 2058, 2012, 2014, 2011, 2029, 2036!!! So many dates and predictions and events… And the Oort Cloud, full with asteroids, ready to attack us!! That's really terrible.

Troll alert!

Tomy2011 27 Feb 2011 21:41

Asteroid strike

This event may not happen in this century.

Gamma Ray Burst

(Very, very, very, very)^12 unlikely. ;-)

Solar flares

As you said, just if it is very, very, very strong and our magnetosphere is very, very weak and our atmosphere is very, very worn.

rogue black holes

Very, very, very unlikely.

supernovae

Dangerous, just if the gamma ray hits Earth. And, as I said before, very, very, very unlikely.

aliens

No, I don't think so.

supervolcanoes

An eruption soon is very unlikely too.

there are tens of supervolcanoes on Earth

Yeah, but very, very unlikely.

crustal displacement

It takes thousands, if not millions of years to happen. Long-term event.

nuclear war, nanotechnology

Both human "creations". So, we can easily avoid these ones.

There are SO many disasters that can happen AT ANY TIME!

The humanity is alive since 120,000 years ago. Why some of these events may happen now? I don't think so. Since we are alive, there are the same dangers in the space that are in the space today. And we are still alive. You don't need to be afraid. You should read Phil Plait's book "Death from the skies". He will tell you why these events are that unlikely.

Tomy2011 28 Feb 2011 17:08

Erik, you're asking us if the apocalypse is soon. No, it's not. My opinion is that if the dinosaurs could live millions of years on Earth, we can live even more. We know the characteristics of every near galaxy today. They didn't, of course. Soon, we'll be able to deflect asteroids coming toward Earth. Of course, they couldn't. We can "avoid" a climate change, they couldn't. We can travel from Tokyo to Buenos Aires. They couldn't.
We are far more prepared than the dinosaurs were 65 million years ago. Wait for a mass extinction event for the next 100 years is silly, since we are here for over 120,000 years. Who's counting? No one. So, could an apocalypse happen in the next 100 years? Maybe, but this is very, very unlikely, Erik.

PS: I watched, again, the documentary on Discovery Channel about 2012. Awful, pseudoscience, disgusting and… convincing, but not true at all. Let me say one thing. Most scientists didn't learn anything they know with documentaries, but with books and learning. Some documentaries are educative, like Mythbusters, How Universe works, etc. But a few are pseudoscience and even some channels admit that. :-)
Why don't you watch Discovery Kids? It's much more educative! Hmm, just kidding. You can watch Warner Channel or HBO too. I recommend.

Matthew (guest) 23 May 2011 14:46

Someone left a comment on the site of the article from the Big Think, which this page cites, saying that the ground around Yellowstone is swelling dramatically, which means the magma chamber could be starting to swell, and that since Mount St Helens’s north flank bulged to the north before it erupted on May 18, 1980, it could be a sign of an impending eruption. Is this true?

TheGreatJuju 23 May 2011 15:09

There no "dramatic" swelling of the ground in Yellowstone. Calderas routinely undergo periods of uplift.

If you're the same Matthew as all the others, stop your hand-wringing. It's way past the point of ridiculous.

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"They tell you, but do you believe it? If so, why?"

http://www.undeadrufus.com

Tomy2011 23 May 2011 17:05

It's a normal cycle of the calderas. It does not mean an eruption is overdue.