Hi Bryan,
You have very little to fear, let me assure you of that. 99% of what you read about this 2012 doomsday is totally false and inaccurate. I've been researching this topic for 3 years and I have yet to find any compelling scientific or historic evidence that the world is going to end in 2012.
Indeed, this is the main reason why Discovery Channel decided to create a documentary interviewing scientists before the 2012 movie was released. Of course, Discovery is a company that wanted to economize on the popularity of a Hollywood blockbuster (hence some of the dramatization and special effects), but they also wanted to cut through the nonsense to find out what the professionals thought.
When I sat down to be interviewed (on the same day as NASA scientist Alex Young), we were both questioned by the documentary producer what the "most likely" doomsday scenario could affect Earth in 2012. The ONLY cosmic event that could affect Earth in 2012 is the coincidental timing of the next solar maximum. (However, it now looks like the peak of the next solar maximum is going to be later, toward the end of 2013.)
Both Alex and myself are solar physicists so we intimately know how the Sun can influence life on Earth, and because modern society depends on sensitive technology (such as satellites, computers, cellphones), there's no solar physicist on the planet that isn't concerned about a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting us. If the conditions are right, a big solar flare and/or CME could interact with the Earth's magnetic field, potentially knocking out satellites and potentially disrupting global communications and power supplies.
This might sound a little scary, but there is NO EVIDENCE that says the Earth is going to get hit by a large CME or flare in 2012. In fact, it is an extremely unlikely event. During the last solar maximum, the Earth was hit a couple of times by fairly large CMEs and flares, but there was very little impact to civilization (apart from a few cellphones that lost signal).
What's more, a lot of time is being invested into space weather prediction systems that can give us an early warning should a CME approach Earth. Unfortunately, like many areas of science, solar physics is underfunded, so both Alex and myself wanted to communicate how important it is that governments take our Sun seriously.
So, in conclusion, the threat of the Sun hitting us with a CME is vastly unlikely in 2012, but perhaps in the next 100 years we could be hit by something big. However, I'd like to think that before that happens mankind will be more than capable of dealing with the solar threat. Mankind has lived in the Sun's influence for millions of years and we've lived through everything it's thrown at us, we've always adapted and that isn't about to change.
I hope that helps.
Best Wishes,
Ian
bryan (guest) 07 Feb 2010 00:32