Hi Noemi;
I can't blame you for being scared, because it seems like every time you turn on the TV there's another earthquake somewhere.
The news tends to report more earthquakes after a particularly deadly one (Haiti) or large one (Chile), so it looks like there are more quakes. However, this is not the case.
On our Chile Earthquake page, we present the following statistics from 110 years of monitoring by the United States Geological Survey: In an average year we expect 1 "great quake" (above 8.0), 17 "Major quakes" (7.0 - 7.9), 134 "Strong quakes" (6.0 - 6.9), 1319 "Moderate quakes" (5.0 - 5.9), 13,000 "Light quakes" (4.0 - 4.9), and so on. Earthquakes happen all the time.
In fact, the USGS has recorded a slight drop in the number of earthquakes over 7.0 in the last 20 years as compared to the previous 90. However, this is considered a statistical fluke. The reality is that the number of earthquakes per year and the intensity of those earthquakes is very stable. We're not getting more or less earthquakes than we did 100 years ago, and they're not stronger or weaker.
As far as California, yes, we have this whopping big fault running north and south through the state. I happen to live within a few miles of it. I can tell you that there is no danger of California "falling into the sea" (as is frequently said). The crust to the west of the fault is moving North, not down, or out to sea.
Another thing: Compare the size and death toll of the Haiti earthquake (7.0, 150,000 dead) with the size and death toll in Chile (8.8, 500 dead). The difference is building codes. Chile's building codes are much more stringent than Haiti. California's building codes are more stringent than Chile's. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (6.9) in the San Francisco Bay area, a densely populated urban center, killed 63 people.
Natural disasters make big news, especially after a couple of significant ones. But just because it's on the news more frequently doesn't mean that they are occurring more frequently.
The World Health Organization compiles statistics on the causes of death. In 2001 there were 56.5 million deaths globally. "Natural Disasters" doesn't even make the top 20 causes. The top 20 were (numbers are in thousands):
1 Ischaemic heart disease 6,880
2 Cerebrovascular disease 5,096
3 Lower respiratory infections 3,863
4 HIV/AIDS 2,943
5 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 2,520
6 Perinatal conditions 2,438
7 Diarrhoeal diseases 2,124
8 Tuberculosis 1,660
9 Road traffic accidents 1,259
10 Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers 1,210
11 Malaria 1,080
12 Hypertensive heart disease 939
13 Self-inflicted injuries 814
14 Diabetes mellitus 808
15 Cirrhosis of the liver 796
16 Measles 777
17 Stomach cancer 744
18 Congenital anomalies 656
19 Liver cancer 626
20 Nephritis and nephrosis 619
( from http://www.who.int/mip/2003/other_documents/en/causesofdeath.pdf )
I'm not going to tell you that there's nothing to worry about. I will tell you that worrying about earthquakes or natural disasters is useless. You are more likely to die from overeating, driving carelessly, or other causes than you are from earthquakes.
Which brings me to my final points: 1) Don't believe the television. The news media reports what generates viewers for themselves, so that they can sell ads. Earthquakes and other natural disasters are big attention-grabbers. 2) View any claim, even the ones on this site, with skepticism. We give you the references so that you can check them out yourself. 3) Examine the assumptions in every argument. "There have been lots of earthquakes recently" assumes that there have been more earthquakes recently than during other time periods. We've shown that this is false. 4) Consider that your fears may not be caused by the things you think are causing them. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world. There always has been. Frequently this general anxiety will build up inside, until you start looking around for a cause, and then you seize on something (like earthquakes) and blame that for your worries.
If you are truly that afraid where you "don't want to live through this time", then seek some help. You may have a mood disorder that can be addressed by talking with a professional. Don't become on of the 813,000 people in cause #13 above.
Noemi (guest) 05 Apr 2010 08:19