I saw today in an article on NASA's website that the magnetic poles reverse about every 300,00 years…the last one was 780,000 years ago…Sounds like we are WAY past due. How can you debunk this is it's been that long ago? Seems like it could happen at any time.
Also, could you tell me what Jesse Ventura has to do with 2012? I've seen him referenced a lot on NASA's Ask An Astrobiologist.
I know I sound like a broken record, and I am sure you are tired of my questions….I'm just REALLY worried.
Hi Laura,
An "average" time between geomagnetic reversals means very little because the time between varies so widely. The longest time between reversals was over 30 million years! That means we can't even begin to think of calling a reversal due, much less overdue. If we went as long this time, it would be 29,220,000 years from now before another took place. In addition, geomagnetic reversals take hundreds to thousands of years to complete. Even if one were able to start in 2012 or today (which it can't because our magnetic field strength is far too high for this to be possible) we wouldn't even feel any change. After a hundred years or so, we would be able to see a difference on a compass, but nothing else would change.
The only way that Jesse Ventura has anything to do with 2012 is that he has a program called Conspiracy Theory. That should set your "screwball alarm" off immediately. He did a program on 2012 where they dragged out all the tired old claims and conspiracy theories. I'm surprised they even bothered to mention him. They must have had people asking questions about him.
What Alene says is exactly true. Magnetic reversals do not happen on a regular, clock-like basis. The period between them is highly variable.
We cannot say that we are "overdue" for one, because that assumes that they occur in that "regular, clock-like basis". We know that they happen, and that they happen "quickly" in terms of geologic time… which means that they occur over long periods of human time. The best information that we have at the moment is that a magnetic reversal will take anywhere from several hundred years to a few thousand years to complete. Currently the magnetic field strength of the earth is declining. This may be due to an impending magnetic reversal, or it may just be a variation in field strength. Check back in 2- or 3-thousand years.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind