ATS and Mandeville

Summary:

Found this quite interrestin thread at ATS, and would like to know if anyone has any comments on this?

ATS and Mandeville

RickardM 13 Jul 2010 18:39

Here's the thread that discussess the effects of an interstellar dust cloud (a whole lot of specualtions and straw-man buldings though):
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=550152&page=2#pid9210144

And here is some "support" for some things that are stated in the thread (that volcanic activity has increased by 400% in the last hundrad years):
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/vortectonics/vortex_correlations2.htm

I found the last link a bit scary, to be honest (but nevertheless noticed the mentioning of E. Cayce) because of the fact that they seem to indicate an increase of both earthquakes and volcanic activity. so, my question is: does this publication (or the ATS thread) hold any merit?

http://www.metatech.org/07/volcanic%20activity_frequency_increasing.html - This was a rather pseudo-scientific take on all that, but does this hold any merit?

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Last edited on 13 Jul 2010 18:44 by RickardM Show more

Re: ATS and Mandeville

2012hoax 13 Jul 2010 18:59

My first reaction to the Mandeville charts is that he shows earthquake activity from 1973 onwards, when the USGS outright states that they could not accurately locate these small earthquakes (2.5 is Mandeville's floor) and so they are not represented in the USGS data.

My second reaction to his charts is that despite his claims that they show a correlation, I do not see strong correlations between his "X-wave" charts and the others he superimposes them on.

Re: ATS and Mandeville

RickardM 13 Jul 2010 20:24

What did you think about the whole premature ice age claim/theory that is presented in the ATS thread? I've seen that before (us moving in to a denser part of the dust cloud) but as far as I know most scientists think that this will take several hundreds to thousands of years before we even enters this denser part. On top of that, there seem to be a consensus among scientists that this isn't going to affect us all that much any way. But what do you make of this?

And what did you make of the claimed increase of volcanic activity? I thought that volcanic activity was rather stable, and not on the increase?

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Re: ATS and Mandeville

Alene Y 14 Jul 2010 03:30

I read recently on one of the USGS pages that there are about 20 volcanoes erupting around the world at any given time. Volcanic activity isn't increasing. It only seems that way to people who never paid any attention to it until all the 2012 BS started. I was at the volcano observatory on Hawaii when Pu'u O first erupted. I went as close as I could to get a good view and watched for several hours. It was fascinating. I even skirted around the base of Mauna Ulu, which was still smoking from its eruption the year before.
There is nothing new about volcanic eruptions. The media made a big deal over the recent Iceland eruption, but the only thing that made it notable was that the ash cloud interfered with air travel over Europe for a few days. There is really no need to worry about volcanoes unless you live too near an active one.

Re: ATS and Mandeville

Astrogeek 14 Jul 2010 06:09

Second part first, I think that the question of the level of volcanic activity is not something I'm qualified to discuss. As far as I know there is no indication that the amount of total vulcanism worldwide is changing significantly, but I admit that in this area I don't know much.

Now for the first part of your question:

Without a doubt the solar system is traversing interstellar space. The question of dust clouds becomes one of whether the 'dust cloud' is dense enough to avoid being blown apart and dispersed by the solar wind and make it down to the inner solar system. I tend to think that it is unlikely, since we see infant suns carving holes in dust clouds shortly after their formation. Look at what has happened to Mars with its weak magnetic field, billions of years of solar wind has stripped the atmosphere away.

So, I tend to think that it is unlikely that even if we are about to plough headfirst into an interstellar dust cloud, that this cloud would affect us soon, or significantly.

Having said all of that, I'm also not convinced that we are about to plough into any such dust cloud.

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"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind

Re: ATS and Mandeville

RickardM 14 Jul 2010 21:08

Thank you both for the responses. The part of vulcanism increasing (graphs by Mandeville) seems to be a textbook example of narrow research. He seems to draw conclusions from just 50-60 years worth of reliable data, which seems a bit ill-adviced. To be honest, and I don't know if it's just me now, but almost every statistic anomaly that we discuss nowadays (solar cycles, magnetosphereic differences, earthquake frequency, etc etc) seem to be realying on far to short recorded history for it to be of any significance to us.

I don't know if anyone agree with me here, but I've come to the conclusion that almost no statistical derivations deserve the hype they get.

Say for example that earthquakes, vulcanism, hurricanes and other catastrophes were to increase exponentially, and then settle. What significance would that be to us? I would say that there would be almost none significance whatsoever to us, we would have to adapt to the changes, but we would more or less go on as always.

Sorry, to take up so much space with my rambling. Just needed to get that out of my system=)

But there was one thing I was wondering about though. Is it true that our solar system is getting hotter (all planets and so on)? And is the moon really on the verge of building up something that resembles of an atmosphere?
I know that the most likelly answer to both is no, but I still wanted to hear if anyone knows anything of this?

By the way, did you see that the two suns gained some ground in India¹? They changed planet Nibiru to star Aderoid, but other than that most was the same=)

Footnotes

1. http://planetarysocietyindia.blogspot.com/2010/06/two-suns-on-june-21-2010-mystery-behind.html

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Re: ATS and Mandeville

2012hoax 14 Jul 2010 21:26

I think I somewhat agree with you regarding statistical evidence. As a tool of analysis, statistics can be used brilliantly to derive patterns from chaotic data. However a statistical association on its own frequently turns out to be simply a coincidence.

Is it true that our solar system is getting hotter (all planets and so on)?

No. I think Plait dealt with this on his badastronomy.com blog recently.

There is a long-term increase in the solar radiation, but from a human standpoint this is irrelevant. It would take millions of years to produce any significant increase in temperature.

And is the moon really on the verge of building up something that resembles of an atmosphere?

Well, the moon has an atmosphere, but it is incredibly thin. The moon's atmosphere is measurable, but if I recall correctly, it is still a more perfect vacuum than we can produce here on earth.

Re the two suns bit from india:

I read the site, and found this gem:

This will culminate on 21st June 2010 when the star comes within 34.65 miles of the earth. Be sure that you will watch the sky on 21st June 2010 at 12:30 p.m. where you will look like the earth has 2 suns.

34.65 miles? Wow. That's within the atmosphere!