I just recently came across the show on History Channel about the 2012 doomsday. It's scared the crap out of me. It's all i think about. I have 2 very small kids and all I can think about is their days are numbered and they are going to be crying and wanting me to help them, but the world is going to end and I can't…..I mean, this stuff has consumed my life. It's even interfering in my marriage. My husband thinks it's all baloney, but not me…..I've been to David Morrison's site and at times it makes me feel better…other times it doesn't. I've also checked out the FAMSI site. Is there a chance the WebBot or the Maya could have predicted something? I'm begging for you guys to please help me!!!!
Well all i know is that the mayan calander didnt predict any of this. That is just when the calender resets like ours. People just started adding reasons for this. Also i talked to someone who worked on the history channel and discovery and they said they are told to make everything doom and gloom to try and attract more viewers ect.
Hi 'LosingMyMind';
The two things you asked about specifically were the WebBot and Mayan predictions.
The WebBot prediction is easy… the claim by the proponents of this prediction is that this software program is somehow 'tapping into the collective subconscious of the human mind' (I think that's how they phrased it in several of the History Channel programs I've seen.
As a computer geek (I've worked in Information Systems and Information Technology for more than two decades) I can tell you that this is complete nonsense. What the WebBot program does is collate information it finds on the internet. It is essentially what the military calls 'traffic analysis', trying to find out significant dates by what dates your enemy is talking about. This might have some validity if you are the U.S. military with a mega-million dollar intelligence budget, so that you can have thousands of analysts sift through the 'take' and cull out the real data from the background noise, but there is no way that a single computer program can do all of that by itself. In addition, since the 'take' is coming from the internet as a whole, the whole principal of 'GIGO' comes into play: Garbage In, Garbage Out.
The absolute best that the WebBot can tell you is "a lot of people are mentioning December 21st, 2012"… which is absolutely true. It is a classic circular argument, but a circular argument made via a computer.
As far as the Maya; The actual prediction for 2012 reads something like this: On December 21st, 2012, such and such a god will come down and get dressed.
What this means is that the Priest (or Shaman, or 'holy man' or however you want to think of him) will dress up in a costume representing that god, and perform a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of some event (perhaps the construction of the temple).
There is no prediction for anything like the 'end of the world', or 'massive destruction' or even 'a big earthquake' by the Maya for December 21st 2012.
The claims of such a prediction are wrong. The prediction does not exist.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Hi, LosingMyMind,
Astrogeek has covered your two specific questions very well. Another thing you should consider is that the Hysteria Channel has changed from showing history to showing sensationalistic nonsense in order to raise their ratings, thus make more money on their advertising. Their doomathon schlockumentaries are ridiculously unscientific. The people who appear on these are not scientists. They are people with virtually no scientific knowledge presenting their speculation on what they think could happen. Also, did you notice that they never say "such and such WILL happen?" They say things like, "Could this happen" and "If this happens."
There is not an iota of scientific evidence that 2012 will be anything other than an ordinary year. You need to read through this site. You will see that there is nothing to worry about.
I know EXACTLY how you feel. I'm seven months pregnant and I have been obsessed with the whole 2012 thing for months now. I'm also a New Orleans native/resident and there were scary theories circulating about the oil spill triggering a fallout of the sea floor creating a super tsunami and a 20 mile wide methane bubble that would also burst killing the entire gulf coat miles inland. After weeks of sheer panic, those theories have eventually been debunked and my fears were again laid to rest. Now this whole doozy of a solar flare/solar max has me all shaken up again and I'm petrified. It's more than an obsession for me at this point..it's consuming me as well! So I can totally relate to how you are feeling. I posted a response to another girl on the CME tonight thread and I mentioned how I have been back and forth, all day, with an overwhelming panic back down to calm then back to panic again. I read some horrible things, then some not so horrible things and I don't know whether to take all this in and give into my fears or not!
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
Hi elsgeorge;
OK, I can see that I need to give a non-technical explanation of the whole CME thing.
Watch this space. It will take me a bit to compose it, but I will write it up and post it as another reply to your message.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Note: What follows is a non-technical description of solar activity.
What's with this whole "Solar Tsunami" thing?
What's up with that? What does it mean? Is there a danger? What should we do about it?
A little background
The sun is our local star. It is made up mostly of Hydrogen, but also some helium and a trace of other elements. It is sometimes thought of as a 'burning ball of gas', which is sort of true. It is not 'burning' like wood or paper burns, but rather because there is so much stuff all gathered in one spot that way down in the middle of the sun the atoms of hydrogen are under so much pressure and so much heat that they actually join up and become helium. This releases a lot more heat, which keeps the process going.
We think of the Sun as being made up of gas, but it's actually a fourth state of matter called plasma. 'Plasma' happens when there is so much heat and energy that the electrons in the atoms can't take it, and they fly away from the nucleus of the atom. So the sun is made up of this 'soup' of particles (protons, neutrons, and electrons).
Solar Wind
The energy contained in the sun is so great that the surface of the sun is constantly boiling away, with the charged particles (meaning that each particle has a tiny positive or negative electrical charge) get blasted off of the sun and launched into space. This is called the 'Solar Wind', and when it hits the earth's magnetic field, it is directed toward the poles and causes aurora (northern and southern lights).
Solar Cycles
Sometimes you will hear terms like "solar maximum" or "solar minimum". These refer to a cycle in the solar activity. At some times the sun is very active, with lots of sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and sometimes it is very quiet. The sun goes through cycles of increased and decreased activity. The cycle runs about 11 years. The highest period of solar activity is called 'Solar Maximum'. It is normal, it happens every 11 years or so. The next solar maximum is predicted to occur in 2013.
Solar Magnetism
Because the solar material is a plasma, most of the particles in the sun carry an electric charge. This is what we mean when we talk about 'charged particles'. The electrical charges cause vast currents that flow through the sun, which creates magnetic fields. These magnetic fields extend out into space. These magnetic fields interact with the solar material and cause many of the things we see happening on the sun. Loops and prominences follow the magnetic field lines, and sunspots are caused when the magnetic field lines push aside the bright surface material and reveal darker, cooler material underneath.
As the solar cycle progresses, the magnetic field lines of the sun go from a very smooth and even configuration at solar minimum to a very twisted and tangled configuration at solar maximum. So at solar max we see a lot more of the effects on the surface of the sun than we do at solar minimum.
Solar 'pole shift'
Sometimes you will hear that the sun's poles will flip. This is sort of true, but misleading. The sun has an overall magnetic polarity, and at solar minimum it can almost be described as having 'poles'. There isn't a specific north and south magnetic pole of the sun. Over the course of the solar cycle, the magnetic field lines get twisted, wrapped around the sun, and very tangled. At solar maximum the magnetic field is very complicated, and you can't really see the overall magnetic polarity of the sun. After solar maximum the fields begin to settle down, and the sun's polarity re-establishes in the opposite orientation from where it started.
The sun's magnetic field doesn't switch instantly. It doesn't send out a 'blast of radiation'1. The 'flip' has no consequences for us, other than the fact that it is tied to the solar cycle.
The 11-year long 'solar cycle' is actually 1/2 of the 22-year long solar magnetic cycle (north to south to north).
What is a solar flare?
A solar flare is an explosion on the surface of the sun. These are caused when the magnetic field lines essentially 'short out', allowing large currents to flow between two regions very quickly. You can see that these are much more likely to occur near solar maximum, when the magnetic field lines of the sun are very tangled, than they are during solar minimum, when the field lines are comparatively smooth.
Solar flares are classed by how strong they are (how much energy they release), with the highest classification of "X". Solar flares release energy in the form of radiation.
Are solar flares dangerous?
Not if you live on the surface of the earth. The magnetic field of the earth and the atmosphere of the earth protects us from the burst of solar radiation. If you were an astronaut on the way to the moon, then yes, they can be dangerous. If you were an astronaut on the International Space Station, they would be less dangerous, but you could still be exposed to quite a bit of radiation.
What is a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)?
This is actually what many people think of when they think of a solar flare. A CME is a blob of charged particles thrown off of the sun. They are frequently associated with solar flares, but not always. Think of a CME as a 'gust' in the solar wind.
Are CMEs dangerous?
Generally not. CMEs can cause several effects on the surface of the earth, and some of those effects can be dangerous, but they are not dangerous to us by themselves. One of the things that a CME can cause (and whether or not they cause these effects depends on a bunch of variables, too many to go into here) are things like interference with communications (telephone, satellite, etc), power outages (they can cause an 'extra' current in power lines, which can damage equipment or trip breakers), and damage to satellites, but the most freqent effect is not dangerous, but rather beautiful, and that is aurora.
As the charged particles of the CME flow past the earth, they interact with the magnetic field of the earth, and flow back along the magnetic field lines until they reach the upper atmosphere at the north and south pole. There they interact with molecules in the upper atmosphere, causing them to glow.
I've never heard about this stuff until recently, what has changed?
Various space agencies around the world have launched a fleet of sattelites to study the sun. Being able to predict what the sun is going to do, and being able to give advance warning of CMEs and solar flares would be very beneficial to power companies, satellite operators, and space agencies who have personnel in space. With spacecraft like SOHO, STEREO and SDO we are studying the sun in a level of detail that we have not been able to do before, so when anything happens we have a lot more details on it.
In addition, we are emerging from a very deep and extended solar minimum. The sun has been very, very quiet recently, and so when something happens on the sun it gets the solar scientists very excited.
Combine these things with a public media that doesn't necessarily understand what's going on, and you get big, splashy, but inaccurate headlines.
Why did various news outlets talk about a 'solar tsunami' heading toward the earth?
That was scary, wasn't it? However, what happened is fairly simple. The sun had a flare and an associated CME. Sometimes the flares cause a shock-wave on the surface of the sun. This is one of those things that we hoped to be able to capture with SDO, and we did.
This shock-wave is sometimes called a 'solar tsunami' (it has a technical name too, but we'll call it that here). It is exciting to watch, because you can see this shock-wave travel across the surface of the sun and cause effects to solar loops and prominences very far away from where the original explosion occurred. These shock-waves can tell us a great deal about what is going on inside the sun too. That is why the solar physicists were so excited to have this one captured by SDO.
However, someone at the news outlets confused the CME (coronal mass ejection) with the 'solar tsunami'. I'm not sure whose fault that was, or perhaps someone just compared the CME to a tsunami… I don't know. So let's be clear here: The so-called 'solar tsunami' is a shock-wave on the surface of the sun. It doesn't leave the sun. The CME is not what we call a 'solar tsunami'.
Of course, people associate the word 'tsunami' with destruction, as in the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. This lead to a bunch of rather irresponsible statements by various people (for example, some self-proclaimed 'experts' on YouTube) that this was going to cause a problem for us.
Meanwhile the scientists were waiting in anticipation, because the CME might cause some spectacular aurora. It did, by the way, but they were only visible if you were very far north.
Conclusion
So, as we state on the Solar Flares page, all of this is normal activity. You are hearing more about this because we have a lot more data with the new spacecraft. None of this is a threat to us. The absolute worst case scenario involves some long-term power outages… and that is why we want to study the sun, so that we can try to predict these things, and prevent them from causing problems by knowing when they are going to happen.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Thanks Astro for the time and information, I found it to be really helpful, but I do have a couple of questions..if you don't mind. On many of the reports/articles I read on NASA's website, they also speak of the class X solar flare, and they seem adamant in their predictions that this will be the kind of activity we are going to see in 2013..why do you think that they are saying this? I mean, I know that you weren't the one to say it, but do you have any clue as to why this Hathaway person is so sure that the storms to come are going to be a "doozy? I, myself, associated the term solar tsunami with that of devastation and destruction because we along the Gulf coast were on standby for a possible super tsunami as a direct result of the blown out oil well..and there were many different conspiracy theories (all debunked, thank goodness) associated with it. What are the chances that we could ever see a class X flare and why in the world would scientists automatically assume that this is the what the future is going to hold? Can we survive a class X flare? Also, there have been talks saying that our magnetosphere isn't strong enough to handle stronger classes of flares (I saw the section where you speak about this, but I'm still a little cloudy with that aspect as well, but I get the gist)..what's your take on this accusation? Again, thank you so much for your information and responses! Greatly appreciated!!!!
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
There was a Class X flare in 2003: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3242353.stm
Bet you didn't notice.
Wow, no, I didn't notice that! Thanks for that link!! Do the numbers behind the X's mean anything in particular? And why in the world would these people publish information saying this kind of activity is going to be a killing catastrophe? I just don't understand, and for those of us who are scared and trying to make sense, it's beyond frustrating.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
the numbers are to determine the strength of the flare within that class. So while an X1 is the lowest strength of the X-Class Flare, an X2 Flare is twice as strong. An X4 is four times as strong, etc.
And why in the world would these people publish information saying this kind of activity is going to be a killing catastrophe?
This, in a nutshell, is half the problem with the 2012 hysteria. There are just people around who like to appear to speak with authority and impress others with their 'knowledge'. They like nothing more than to scare people and have them say "Wow. Can that really be true?" The last thing they want is people with real scientific knowledge telling them "Baloney!" There have been a couple of threads on this forum recently about 2012 proponents censoring any adverse comments on YouTube or their own forums. They really hate it when that happens.
Here is a page at spaceweather.com discussing the classification of solar flares. Flares (distinct from Coronal Mass Ejections) are classified in their X-RAy flux (meaning the 'brightness' in X-Ray wavelengths, which are between 1 and 8$\AA$). Bikenbeer2000 has already pointed you toward the 2003 solar flare, which happens to be the largest measured solar flare.1. That may not be the largest recorded solar flare. Here is a discussion of the estimated size of the Carrington event flare. (again, distinct from the CME and geomagnetic storm that followed it). The authors discuss the difficulty in estimating the 1859 flare, and conclude that the flare portion of the 1859 event may have been up to twice the X-Ray flux of the 2003 event, or about an X56. They also note that while the flare was bright, there were many other significant solar events in the studied period, many of which exceeded the Carrington event in some of the recorded effects.
This brings up another point… size may not matter. We know that some flares are associated with CMEs, and some are not. Some CMEs are 'geo-effective' (meaning that they cause an effect in the earth's geomagnetic field) and some are not.
As far as danger, solar flares are more dangerous to astronauts than CMEs are. Since CMEs are blobs of solar material, they typically take hours or days to arrive. We get some warning.
On the other hand, solar flares generate X-Ray emissions, which travel at the speed of light. We get zero warning.
The primary effect of big flares (again, making a distinction between flares and CMEs) is that they cause radio interference. As the X-Ray emissions hit the Earth's atmosphere, they are absorbed in the ionosphere. The ionosphere becomes more charged (lots of extra electrons) which causes the ionosphere to become less transparent to radio wavelengths. A Carrington-sized event flare today would do more than that… it would probably fry a bunch of expensive electronics in satellites. TV, Radio and Satellite reception suddenly goes away… Truly the end of the world! (Although cable delivery of entertainment would probably be unaffected, so maybe not)
So if you want to prepare for an X50+ solar flare, get fiber for your home entertainment.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
The carrington event discussion link is no good, the page is not found :( Thanks for all the good info guys! Its truly making me feel better with everything.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
That was a great presentation, thank you so much!! Y'all truly have put my fears to rest with all of the information everyone's provided!! I cannot thank you enough! It makes me sick when I think about these so-called professionals saying what they say to scare the sh*t out of people. I mean, I get the websites who play on the scenarios in order to make a profit by selling 'survival guides' and whatnot, but for people who the general public look up to and trust with pertinent to automatically assume everything is going to be 'worst-case' just baffles me.
They did the same thing down here in New Orleans with the Deepwater Horizon oil well blew up! The Gulf was permanently tainted, the fishing industries were gone forever (in not, many many years down the road) and there were even talks of the sea floor rupturing and causing this super-tsunami and 20 mile long methane bubble, which were predicted to wipe out the entire Gulf coast region and well inland. A LSU marine geologist debunked that theory as well, but they sure did scare the people down here!!! Disgusting!
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
these so-called professionals saying what they say
These people aren't professionals, unless you consider hoaxing a profession.
I agree.
Some people seem to say whatever it takes to get into the spotlight. These hoaxers don't care what the effects of their appearances are, they just want their 30 seconds in front of the camera.
Me, I'm old, fat and ugly, so nobody's going to put me on the air. :-D
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Thank you… I corrected the link above.
I'd like to make the posts above into a 'Solar Tsunami' page, because I have seen a lot of talk about that. Is there anything you think I should add to it?
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Lol Astro!! Thanks!! So far, I mean since I don't know zip about this other than what everyone's posted, maybe what you already have is a good starting point..and perhaps if more people have more questions, go from there. That is really good information and is 'dummied' down enough for people to understand.
If you don't mind, can I pick your brains..? This doesn't have anything directly to do with 2012/doomsday/hysteria, but what are your thoughts on the recent quakes, floods, sinkholes, fires, volcano eruptions and all the other good mother nature 'wraths?' I've heard some people relate it with a possible doomsday scenario while others say it's just coinsidence. What are your thoughts?
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
- Shakespeare
Actually I get that question a lot.
There is zero evidence (and by evidence I mean real evidence, not people saying "it seems like we're getting a lot more <insert destructive event> than we used to") that earthquakes or volcanoes are on the rise. In fact the USGS website says that the number of 'great' quakes has actually dipped in the last 20 years, but that they consider that a statistical fluke.
We do seem to be experiencing some changes in weather patterns, but again that is my subjective opinion, and not a statement of fact on my part. I'll have to leave that up to the climate scientists, but every time I've heard them speak on the issue, they have said that it's too early to tell, but that the weather changes might be related to climate change.
The biggest threat facing us is apparently ourselves.
So again, my opinion: Earthquakes and volcanoes: No. Floods/fires/tornadoes/hurricanes/etc: Maybe. Sinkholes: Maybe, if their collapse is tied to weather (rapid erosion, etc).
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Your 'Solar Tsunami' explanation looks pretty comprehensive to me. Offhand, I can't think of anything missing. Is Ian O'Neill able to give it a read?
Thank you, your opinion in particular means a great deal to me!
Ian's at the Mars Society meeting today… I'll bug him to give it the once-over this weekend.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Hey guys. I wish I'd never heard of this crap. I vaguley remember Y2k. I was only 14 then and never gave it a second thoguht. But now, I'm the mommy of 2 of the most beautiful little girls and the thought of something bad happening to them, specially after seeing bits and pieces of that crazy movie "2012", the thought of them only having so little time left terrifies me. It makes my heart hurt. I really never knew love like i do now. I go back and forth between thinking it's a load of crap, to being so scared I can't eat or sleep….
You might want to take a look at abhota.com. I counted 394 doomsday dates predicted, the first in 2800 BC. There were multiple predictions for most of these dates. I have chidren and grandchildren and I'm not at all frightened by this hoax.
Do yall think the 2012 hype will simmer before that actual date? Do you think they'll say "such-and-such" has happened and the date has been changed? Some days i think it's all a crock but some days my anxiety kicks in and it's all i can think about…..
Maybe, but I think it will get worse before it gets better.
I also think we will see people migrating to the "shift in consciousness" position, as it become clearer that the claimed physical events are not occurring. Even now, more than two years out, I'm seeing some proponents abandon some of their physical claims (inbound planets, etc) in favor of the more meta-physical (and therefore more difficult to argue against) claims.
I still fear the mass "Heaven's Gate" scenarios in the run-up to 12/21/2012.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
What is the Heaven's Gate Scenario i haven't heard about that one just all the other ridiculous crap that people are spewing about 12/21/12.
It involved Hale-Bopp's passing. It was a cult that, well, mass-suicided due to it for some sort of spiritual awakening or alien passing or… eh.
Sadly crazy people sadly killed themselves. That's it.
Is that the mass suicide in the ancient Mayan City of Takal thing from the 2012 movie i wondered where that came from.
No, it was a doomsday cult that committed mass suicide in 1997
My concern is that there are always destructive cults around. Some were suicide cults like The People's Temple, and The Order of the Solar Temple, and some were ritualistic murder cults like Aum Shinrikyo or the Mason family.
My concern is that the hype around 12/21/2012 will be the trigger for some groups like these.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
So, there truly isn't one iota of evidence of anything happening that day, year or anything? I haven't seen anything on History Channel or Discovery Channel. Thank for taking the time to answer my questions….I'm sure your job gets tiresome. It means a lot when you have fears and someone is willing to talk toy uo.
So, there truly isn't one iota of evidence of anything happening that day, year or anything?
Quite correct. There's no more chance of anything happening on 21st December 2012 than on 20th December 2012, 21st May 2011, tomorrow or any other date you care to name. Absolutely not a thing.