Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

Summary:

just curious.

Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

Krisss (guest) 08 Aug 2010 14:58

I know I read last month, how the solar minimum was longer than what they expected, and now this month (August), in the past week there was two solar flares, the recent yesterday august 7th. i was just curious if it is possible that the solar maximum might actually happen this year 2010 or maybe 2011? And is our government taking any action to reinforce our power-grid to protect against a severe solar storm that so many are "claiming" to come? And thank you guys for this site, I used to be a freak over 2012, it gave/gives me such bad anxiety still, but this website has really started to help me cope better with it. Also, I've been watching the website www.spaceweather.com for solar flares, so that's how i found out about yesterday's M1 solar flare from sunspot 1093.

Re: Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

Kimoe (guest) 11 Aug 2010 20:01

I have read NASA's March 2006 article "Solar Storm Warning". It states the solar storm expected in 2012-2013 will be 30%-50% stronger than normal. The US National Academy of Science says they were only able to make these calculations as of 2006. My question is would this be enough to knock out all or some electricity?

Re: Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

Alene Y 11 Aug 2010 20:58

That report is outdated. The next solar maximum is now expected to occur in mid-2013 and to be weaker than average. We've been having solar maxima approximately every 11 years for millions of years. They aren't a threat to us. A solar flare could knock out some electricity or satellites at any time, not just at the maximum of the sunspot cycle. Unless you can't live without your cell phone for a while, you will be OK.

Re: Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

TheGreatJuju 11 Aug 2010 21:16

I have read NASA's March 2006 article "Solar Storm Warning". It states the solar storm expected in 2012-2013 will be 30%-50% stronger than normal. The US National Academy of Science says they were only able to make these calculations as of 2006. My question is would this be enough to knock out all or some electricity?

That material is out-of-date. The current projection (made in May 2009) reads, "…the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90." Of course, that is a projection, and it is subject to revision or being completely wrong.

As for the OP, NASA personnel have expressed their concerns at various times over the ability of infrastructure to weather a major geomagnetic event. Regarding specific steps taken by government or industry, I don't know. I do know that the STEREO project has made early warning much more possible than it was not that long ago, and that's probably the most important thing. Honestly, a Carrington-style event tomorrow might be problematic and very costly, but the catastrophes, doomsdays and civilization-crushing solar flares being "forecasted" by 2012 nuts range from unlikely to impossible.

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Re: Solar Maximum 2010/2011 possibly?

Astrogeek 12 Aug 2010 04:26

I'll add that the NCAR 2006 prediction was taken into account in the NOAA 2009 prediction.

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