Wow....Geryl makes new prediction
http://blog.2012pro.com/2012/prediction-next-complex-eruption-of-the-sun
Not really sure what it means.
Wow....Geryl makes new prediction
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» Wow....Geryl makes new prediction
Well, the way I read it, he's predicting a solar flare on October 27th. But if it's off its because the astronomers don't calculate the speed of the equatorial rotation of the sun.
Of course! All of the Exclamation points!! make it seem! like he's saying!!! something astounding!!! when he says there was a C3!! Flare!!!!!
The astronomers know that C3 is a wimpy itty-bitty flare, not something noteworthy at all. All of the rest of his hyperbolic pronouncements are of the same quality.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Uh… I can't figure out what the hell he's saying. Is he saying the 'solar storm' from August 1stish was a sign of 2012? And now he's… agh.
I HATE THIS MAN HE CONFUSES THE HELL OUT OF ME!
So what happens when Geryl's prediction for Oct 27th fails. Much like his 2012 prediction will fail.
Also where's Geryl's evidence for any of his claims is it just a feeling he has and he can't support what he says is that about the size of all his crap.
It looks to me as if it's based on this nonsense discussed in another thread. I'm always glad when this sort of precise prediction appears because you just know it's going to be wrong.
I hope you're right biken. This guy's ego is big enough.
He also said that he would be willing to share his data with a mathmetician or solar physicist if they requested.
Any of y'all takers on it?
I quite enjoy making fun of this sort of thing as you can see here. Of course, the latest score is now 0-8.
quoted text He also said that he would be willing to share his data with a mathmetician or solar physicist if they requested. Any of y'all takers on it?
At one point, I had inquired for more details on his predictions catalyst, and Geryl had pointed me towards his book for those details. With this in mind, I seriously doubt that he'd share such data without requiring the person to purchase his book, which in my mind promptly makes the information suspect.
It's certainly what one wonders. It's interesting that he makes a precise decision this early though. He must be confident.
Lol nice. I read an interesting review of Geryl's Orion prophecy by Geoff Stray. He's kind of a new-ager yet skeptical of it all.
Can you astronomers use your software to see if Strays results make sense?
Here is the link:
http://www.diagnosis2012.co.uk/orp.htm
So was there a Flare or CME in the last week?
A few C-Class flares on Monday IIRC. There's a potential for an M-Class soon, and it could happen today. Which would kinda suck, cause Geryl would never STFU about it. Regardless, as of today, the activity as been low.
Shows nothing for today or tomorrow.
I gotta admit. I'm a little weirded out since he said a CME would happen on the 27th plus or minus one day. Have we had any other over the last month?
Just to throw a different angle on this, guessing a particular date in a month has a chance of 1/30, give or take. We can't rule out it just being a lucky guess for example.
A few C-Class Flares happened on Monday Evening but C-Class is insignificant to the astronomy community as a whole. As of today, the current sunspot capable of a potential isolated M-Class flare is boring and quiet. There is the potential for an isolated M-Class flare 'soon'.
If we do get C3 flares today or tomorrow, they won't really prove Geryl right. Mostly because the current sunspot cluster has been fussy prior to this. It letting out C3 flares would not prove anything on merit of 'it's been active'.
Again, C3 flares are insignificant. And since there's been activity prior to Geryl's given date… woohoo? It would be much stranger if there was little to no activity, and then SUDDENLY on his given predicted date we got some big flares.
So, yeah. Claiming C3 flares will occur is like saying someone is going to fart in a convention hall of people.
Yea, that's what I was referring to. If there was nothing from the prior date till now, that would be kinda creepy. But if I'm understanding you correctly, there have been several Class C flares over the last 87 days or so?
Quite a few monday. I don't follow solar cycles because they A: Do not fascinate me at all and B: I find them irrelevant to my daily life.
You can check for how active the solar flares have been in the past 87 days specifically if you desire. Or, ask someone here to.
Yea, I'm trying to figure it out. But I need something simple like chart. The SDO website has the suns activity since the SDO was launched, but I have no idea what to consistently look for.
Help is appreciated as always!
If you are looking for a detailed day by day activity of solar flares, here you go:
http://www.solen.info/solar/indices.html
As you can see, only one C flare yesterday and it wasn't anything noteworthy. You can also see that there were 2 last sunday, 3 last monday, 2 last tuesday, and one last wednesday. So far only one M class flare on the 16th of this month.
In my opinion, his predictions are wrong. I'm sure astro, biken, or juju wouldn't mind giving theirs.
Yea it definitely seems to be that way if he was suggesting they come in between 82 and 88 day intervals. HEck I think there was a class M flare August 9th. Which was just a few days after he made the prediction. I wouldnt mind here the other guys take on these things as well.
I've already looked at the calculations performed by Geryl in order to arrive at these predictions and I can tell you that deducing a likely date for a solar flare by his method is about as scientifically valid as throwing a dart at a calendar.
Is he using something similar to dikpati's model? By looking at his data, has he been right before?
no, he's using a model he made out of an excel spreadsheet based on his interpretation of the dimensions of ancient structures in egypt.
yep.
And with this, he can tell us when the next big solar flare is.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Huh? It was my impression that he did it based off of the Venus table by the Maya? Which that theory itself comes from Maurice Cotterell who is known to be a weird one.
Astro and Biken,
I was on Bautforums.com and a gentleman said that we have been hit by several solar flares and CMEs in the last 80 days in addition to the ones on the 26th. Is this accurate?
perhaps that was it… I thought it was out of the "Orion Prophecy". It might even have been a combination of both, because I haven't tortured myself with his book. I was just going off of what he said on his website, and I may not be remembering correctly.
As far as solar flares and CMEs… I don't know. Probably, because we 'get hit' with small ones all of the time.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
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