So Apophis has a 1 in 250000 chance of hitting us in 2036. How good are those odds? Meaning should we be concerned? Could it cause mass extinction to mankind? Can it destroy the earth? Is it to large to be deflected? Thanks this has worried me for some time and caused a lot of anxiety.
How good are those odds?
If by "good" you mean the chance is 249,999/250,000 that it won't hit us, that's pretty good.
Meaning should we be concerned?
It's nothing that should disrupt your day to day life.
Could it cause mass extinction to mankind? Can it destroy the earth?
No. It would certainly cause some regional devastation, but such an impact would not be a mass extinction event.
Check here. This calculation uses the estimated size of Apophis (270 m) and some roughly standard assumptions about conditions in an asteroid impact scenario. It places the observer at a distance of 100 km from the impact site. You can find the damage projection near the bottom.
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 20 seconds after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.7
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:
VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
…
Glass windows will shatter.
As you can see, no mass extinction and no significant damage beyond a few dozen kilometers from the impact site. If you'd like to experiment with you own values, go here.
Is it to large to be deflected?
Any attempts to develop a method of deflecting or rerouting an object like Apophis will take this into account. It isn't too large to have its orbit influenced, and certainly isn't too large to blast. How to do those things is a problem to solve.
Thanks this has worried me for some time and caused a lot of anxiety.
There's really nothing to worry about regarding Apophis.
There's really nothing to worry about regarding Apophis.
Damn cool event to look forward to though - welcome to the Universe, Earthlings. Admire the wonders, keep a watchful eye on the pointy rocks, could the last one to leave turn off the lights.
I even told you not to worry about it when I mentioned it! Apophis is the only threat within our generation that we're aware of at this time, and it's, as noted, not a ME level threat.
And again, 2036. Not 2012. Don't fear something that's 26 years away and isn't a big deal yet.
1/250,000 chance is not that great… 250,000 is a big number. Put simply, you have not even went out of your own house 250,000 times yet since you were born. What I'm trying to say is, don't worry about this.