Apophis

Apophis

alex (guest) 06 Nov 2010 12:57

even though its a long time from now is there really any chance of there being a world wide extinction or apophis hitting. Its in my lifetime and its still concerning has anyone got any ideas ???

Re: Apophis

bikenbeer2000 06 Nov 2010 13:49

The chances of Apophis impacting the Earth are currently estimated at 1 in 250,000. This is a very low order of probability and will very likely decrease still further as more observations of this object are made. According to the NASA Near Earth Object Program website: "Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."
If you read the section on 'Mitigation' in the above link, you will find that there has already been a study on how this object might be deflected by sending a spacecraft containing a payload of reflective or absorptive material in order to change its energy absorption.
In any case, this object is not large enough to cause a worldwide extinction event. An object that size might take out a city, at worst.
In summary:
1) It will almost certainly miss us.
2) If not, we can deflect it.
3) No worldwide extinction.

alex (guest) 06 Nov 2010 13:53

thanks very much it had me worried 4 a bit

bikenbeer2000 06 Nov 2010 15:02

You're very welcome.

Moo (guest) 06 Nov 2010 17:11

I will be entirely fair and detail the damage Apophis WOULD deal. We know exactly where it would strike now, and as a result, coastal areas of the Eastern US, and thus Western Europe and other continents in that line, would get pretty badly torn up by tsunamis.

So, extinction event? Naw. Just don't be on a coast~

alex (guest) 06 Nov 2010 17:21

well im moving to sharm el shiek in egypt so thats coastal :) suppose it wont hit there though although im not sure if it does ill move :)

Moo (guest) 06 Nov 2010 17:51

You'd probably get smashed by the double tsunami of destruction, yes =P But I wouldn't bank my moving expenses on a 1:250,000 chance.

bikenbeer2000 06 Nov 2010 19:53

According to the Earth Impact Effects Program website a shoreline 1,000 km from the point of impact in the ocean would see a tsunami of amplitude less than 1.3 metres.
Not much different to a slightly higher than normal spring tide in places where it coincides with a high tide.