If the solar minimum was less then expected and the sun has been acting strangely, is it wrong to believe that the solar maximum could be unusually strong? Also, why is it being reported that moscow is having 5000 bunkers quickly built for 2012? If you tend to mostly quoye Morrison on this site, what if he is covering up for NASA? One more thing directed to the people making this site….honestly, wil you be in a bunker or something similar on dec 21, 2012? I haven't slept or eaten in days. This whole thing is affecting my ability to go about life.
Jewels read this thread.
http://www.2012hoax.org/forum/t-294197/solar-flares
Hopefully that helps you.
Fixed link and made it active. JS.
Thanks but I can't open the thread. Would you be able to resend it? It doesn't work when I try to copy and paste either.
Maybe Astro or someone can repost the link.
Done. JS
Hello Mike,
I fixed the link.
"I was glad to be able to answer him promptly and with confidence. Without hesitation, I told him I didn't know." Mark Twain
Jewels the Solar Maximum isn't expected until Spring 2013 and it's expected to be weaker then the last one.
I read that it was supposed to be weaker but I am wondering why they think that if they also say that the sun has been acting strange. If the solar minimums have been very weak, is it not possible the solar maximum could be unusually strong? Also, I am wondering if most people that don't believe this is possible (which I desperately want to believe) will still take precautionary measures to be in a shelter on dec 21, 2012.
I read that it was supposed to be weaker but I am wondering why they think that if they also say that the sun has been acting strange.
The Sun has been "strange" only because the last minimum dragged on longer than average. You're talking about a fusion reaction that's been going on for more than 4.5 billion years, and we have only a few centuries' worth of somewhat reliable observations (though sunspots were first documented as early as the 4th Century BCE). "Strange" to us doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme.
If the solar minimums have been very weak, is it not possible the solar maximum could be unusually strong?
Anything is possible, but there's no reason to think so, given what we see at the moment. Even if we have an extremely nasty solar maximum, it's nothing that can't be dealt with. We have 24/7, 360° monitoring of the sun, hardened satellites, and many areas sport a resilient infrastructure that can take precautions with the proper forewarning. In short, bad solar weather is a concern, but we can handle it.
Also, I am wondering if most people that don't believe this is possible (which I desperately want to believe)…
Believe what is possible? Solar weather isn't just possible — it's a daily reality. Has been for over 4.5 billion years. We're doing fine.
…will still take precautionary measures to be in a shelter on dec 21, 2012.
There is absolutely nothing the Sun can do, even at its worst, that will necessitate taking cover in any kind of shelter. We're talking about possible disturbances in electronics and communications, not massive waves of fire like that depicted in the movie Knowing. There's no evidence that our Sun is even capable of doing that. You have nothing to fear from our local star. On the contrary, you wouldn't be alive without it. ;)
Hello Jewels,
I fixed the link that Mike gave.
I think the question you ask confuses a few things.
Is it possible that the next solar maximum could be unusually strong?
Possible to be "unusually" strong? Yes. Likely to be "unusually" strong? No. Strong enough for people to need to be in bunkers to survive it? That's a whole 'nuther class of "unusually strong". Nothing even close to it has ever been observed. You can safely forget about it.
As to being in a bunker on 21 December 2012, I can't speak for anyone else here, but the last place I want to be is locked up in a confined space run by some lunatic "2012 messiah". I'd seriously fear for my safety when he or she is proven wrong.
"I was glad to be able to answer him promptly and with confidence. Without hesitation, I told him I didn't know." Mark Twain
If the solar minimum was less then expected and the sun has been acting strangely, is it wrong to believe that the solar maximum could be unusually strong?
Why would you believe that? What data supports that belief? All the data we have right now suggests that Solar Cycle 24 will be relatively mild.
Also, why is it being reported that moscow is having 5000 bunkers quickly built for 2012?
Reported by whom?
If you tend to mostly quoye Morrison on this site…
This site does not "mostly" quote David Morrison, though he is an astrobiologist and more than qualified to speak on a variety of topics.
…what if he is covering up for NASA?
Is there some reason we should suspect David Morrison of "covering up for NASA?" What exactly would he cover up? How would he do this?
One more thing directed to the people making this site….honestly, wil you be in a bunker or something similar on dec 21, 2012?
No, I'll probably be playing a video game.
I haven't slept or eaten in days. This whole thing is affecting my ability to go about life.
I'm sorry to hear that. If something in particular is bothering you, we'll do what we can to help.
Here is the link Mike posted:
Here is one of the sites regarding the Moscow bunkers.
I am hoping Morrison is telling the truth. My worry is that we may be lied to about a looming disaster to avoid the population going into mass panic. Would we really be told that we would be hit by something devastating by the government? I don't know that I believe we would be told the truth and I am pretty sure our governments will all be in bunkers on that date whether they believe anything would happen or not just as a 'precausion'. I guess what bothers me is that I have five kids with four of them under six and one newborn. I feel terribly guilty that I may have brought them into this world just to be taken out by something like this and I don't want to see them suffer. My two year old has two heart conditions. We would need to know in advance to have her prepared. Also, I don't know if I can stand the stress of waiting to find out in two years whether my family and I will perish or not. It consumes my day, all day, every day and I can't stand it. I guess I figure a coverup could be done just to calm the public so we don't all panic and in that case we wouldn't really be told what they know. As for the solar flares, if the sun is being unpredictable, how do we actually know it won't be really bad that year and make up for the past years of weak solar flares. There may not be anything to say this but we also thought the solar minimums would be stronger also. So many websites say so many things that it is hard to know what is the truth and who the people posting actually are and if they are legit. Sites like this make me feel better unfortunately, for each one like this, there are also tons in favour of a worst case senerio.
Here is one of the sites regarding the Moscow bunkers.
That article has nothing to do with the actual shelter construction being talked about in the news video. Carefully watch the embedded video, then read the article again and notice how it has been completely fictionalized. They flat out lie, in fact, about Moscow rushing to build the shelters. That isn't what the report says. What is says is the plans for the shelters will be developed over the "next couple of years." The shelters themselves are not scheduled to be built during this time.
I am hoping Morrison is telling the truth. My worry is that we may be lied to about a looming disaster to avoid the population going into mass panic.
But why? How would anyone or any government be able to hide something of that magnitude?
I don't know that I believe we would be told the truth
The truth about what? What scenario, short of something like secret war plans, could possibly hinge on people in government telling you about it? What about all the scientists and science hobbyists who don't have anything to do with any government? Why would they hide something if it was that important? And why would all the governments in the world (some of whom hate each other) collaborate to hide something like that? There's no plausible reason to think that even could happen, let alone would.
I am pretty sure our governments will all be in bunkers on that date whether they believe anything would happen or not just as a 'precausion'.
Why do you think that?
I guess what bothers me is that I have five kids with four of them under six and one newborn. I feel terribly guilty that I may have brought them into this world just to be taken out by something like this…
But you haven't even told me what you think "this" is. What exactly are you afraid of?
…and I don't want to see them suffer. My two year old has two heart conditions. We would need to know in advance to have her prepared.
The only things you need to worry about are keeping you kids healthy, happy and safe, and getting them educated.
Also, I don't know if I can stand the stress of waiting to find out in two years whether my family and I will perish or not. It consumes my day, all day, every day and I can't stand it.
You don't have to wait two years. Any 2012 doomsday scenario you can think of is probably demolished somewhere on this site. If it's not, please let us know.
I guess I figure a coverup could be done just to calm the public so we don't all panic and in that case we wouldn't really be told what they know.
I realize that, but that doesn't explain how "they" could possibly keep anything of those proportions a secret, and that's even assuming they would want to. The government is just a group of people. They have families. As much as I despise governments and much of what they do, even I'm willing to acknowledge that they aren't all malicious tyrants. You have to make some very broad assumptions about a lot of people to think as you do, on top of the sheer impossibility of that many people keeping a secret.
As for the solar flares, if the sun is being unpredictable…
The sun isn't being unpredictable, at least not in any way that's unusual. It's just doing what it does. This year, solar activity ramped up just as it was expected to, it was just a bit later than anticipated.
…how do we actually know it won't be really bad that year and make up for the past years of weak solar flares.
Here you're just ascribing intent to the Sun. It isn't a conscious entity, and it doesn't decide to "make up" for weaker years. In fact, it follows some pretty regular trends. That's how we're able to identify solar maxima and minima in the first place. Here is the current graph showing the previous cycle, and extending sunspot projections out to 2020.
There may not be anything to say this but we also thought the solar minimums would be stronger also.
Who thought this? The down-time was longer than anticipated, but nobody expects much solar activity during a minimum. That's what it is, by definition — a 12-month average of minimal sunspot activity.
So many websites say so many things that it is hard to know what is the truth and who the people posting actually are and if they are legit.
I understand. That's why you should get your information from scientific sources that build on real data from real scientists, not hysteria websites like shtfplan.com that can't even bother to tell you the truth.
Sites like this make me feel better unfortunately, for each one like this, there are also tons in favour of a worst case senerio.
Well, I hope you can rest assured that the people who actually make a living in science, such as solar physicists, don't support anything being spread by the conspiracy and doomsday websites you see all over the Web. Consider taking a listen to the Astronomy.FM podcast this site's founder did, wherein he interviews physicist Ian O'Neill about the Sun.
One more thing, why does everyone from NASA not agree. Apparently an astro physicist from NASA says we very well could have a huge solar storm affect us where Morrison isn't expecting anything out of the ordinary.
Once again, look at your source. That is 2012informant.com, a known woo site.
Two things about Michio Kaku — 1) he is not an astrophysicist, let alone a solar expert, and 2) he does not work for or speak for NASA. Yet another 2012 hysteria site is lying to you.
We've actually talked about Kaku and his public errors before. There's a page on him here, but it's still under construction. Suffice it to say that he is as much a media personality as he is a scientist, and he has exaggerated some claims to the point of making them inaccurate.
David Morrison summarizes NASA's position on solar flares in 2012. Take note of the text I've put in bold type.
"NASA is pleased with the National Research Council report on heliophysics. As you note, this report includes a worst-case analysis of what could happen today if there were a repetition of the biggest solar storm ever recorded (in 1859). The problem is the way such information can be used out of context. There is no reason to expect such a large solar storm in the near future, certainly not in 2012 specifically. Your reference to “the event in 2012” illustrates this problem. There is no prediction of an 'event in 2012'. We don’t even know if the next solar maximum will take place in that year. The whole 2012 disaster scenario is a hoax, fueled by ads for the Hollywood science-fiction disaster film 2012. I can only hope that most people are able to distinguish Hollywood film plots from reality."
If the solar minimum was less then expected and the sun has been acting strangely, is it wrong to believe that the solar maximum could be unusually strong?
If you have calm water, do you expect a enormous wild tsunami to follow because the water is unusual calm?
One more thing directed to the people making this site….honestly, wil you be in a bunker or something similar on dec 21, 2012?
Out and having a big party you mean?
If the solar minimum was less then expected and the sun has been acting strangely, is it wrong to believe that the solar maximum could be unusually strong?
No, but define "unusually". I mean, it could be strong and cause problems but, first: the next solar maximum is expected for 2013, not 2012. Second: a solar maximum cannot destroy Earth, just provoke power outages or broke satellites.
Also, why is it being reported that moscow is having 5000 bunkers quickly built for 2012?
Two questions:
Where did you saw this information?
Do you think that there's a conspiration?
One more thing directed to the people making this site… honestly, will you be in a bunker or something similar on dec 21, 2012?
I'm not making this site, but I will not waste time and money on this bunkers, honestly. And I don't think that the 2012hoax admins. and moderators will.
If you tend to mostly quote Morrison on this site, what if he is covering up for NASA?
Yes. A serious scientist, covering science. Interesting. This is science, not conspiration. What? They will hide the sky? The sky is public, million of astronomers can see the sky at night.
Hi Jewels,
"If the solar minimum was less then expected and the sun has been acting strangely, is it wrong to believe that the solar maximum could be unusually strong?"
When they were working from old 2003 data, solar scientists did think that the next solar max might be stronger than average. Now, with 7 more years of observation, they expect the next solar max to take place in about May 2013 and to be weaker than average. Are you aware that the strongest solar storm on record only damaged telegraph equipment?
What is your source for the claim that Moscow is building 5000 bunkers for 2012?
What do you think that NASA might have done that Dr. Morrison would be covering up?
Since solar flares only damage satellites and electrical equipment, what connection do you think these almost certainly fictional bunkers would have with solar flares?
We have always had solar flares (we had several this fall).
I can't speak for everyone here, but I am absolutely certain that none of our original members (particularly me) would do something as silly as hide in a bunker for a fictional doomsday. As for the solar maximum in 2013, if we have any flares that are expected to produce aurorae visible at my latitude, I will be outside watching.
I am certainly not trying to debunk this site. In fact, quite the contrary as I am hoping this site can help squash the sheer terror I feel for that day. I desperately hope that you are all correct. I am nothing other then a concerned mother horrified by the thought of her kids suffering. I have attached the link to the Moscow bunkers above in a previous post. As for Morrison, I hope he isn't covering up anything I just fear that I don"t necessarily believe the government would tell us of a deadly event about to occur if there was nothing they could do to help us all. Also, what do you make of this video apparently from NASA?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVluo-u_xQk
Thanks everyone for all the input.
I am certainly not trying to debunk this site.
In many ways you should, it's how science works. If you can find a single fault with an idea, that idea needs to explain the fault or it isn't a strong idea in the first place.
Also, what do you make of this video apparently from NASA?
Firstly it's not from NASA, and secondly it's splattered with nonsense that I think is all covered in various places on this site, especially pages like the Galactic Plane.
I'd be interested to hear what you thought when, about 6 mins in, the presenter says "our Solar System will definitely begin passing through the galactic plane in the very near future", despite the scientific consensus agreeing that 'very near future' is more like 'tens of millions of years in the future'.
Hi Jewels,
The video you linked is pretty muchly nonsense from beginning to end. A few examples:
1:15 "All galaxies are flat and circular." FALSE. See here: http://www.impactlab.net/2010/01/13/how-galaxies-came-to-be-astronomers-explain-hubble-sequence/
1:37 "The Galactic Plane is what modern science refers to as the"Galactic Equinox". FALSE. There's no such thing as the "Galactic Equinox". That term isn't used by modern science—it's found only on woo sites.
2:25 "The Mayans themselves describe what they refer to as the Dark Rift, or the Galactic Plane." Nonsense: the Dark Rift and Galactic Plane are not remotely the same thing. See our pages on each of those subjects.
3:00 "The Earth passes through the Galactic Equinox, the Dark Rift, or the Central Plane." See earlier comments.
"I was glad to be able to answer him promptly and with confidence. Without hesitation, I told him I didn't know." Mark Twain
Hi Jewels,
I didn't think you were trying to debunk our site. I was just pointing out that there is no reason to accept the nonsense you see on YouTube and the crackpot websites.
You may have posted the wrong link for the video you thought was from NASA. Your link goes to a video that has saintbirgitta.com on every page and was posted by roderickcaparoso. It has nothing to do with NASA. The video is just another doomsayer posting his own unscientific and untrue claims. He says things like "many scientists" and "researchers agree," but he names no scientists or researchers. The fact is that scientists don't agree with any of it except for the fact that there is a black hole at the center of the galaxy. That is 26,000 light years away and has no effect on us.
Also, there are many thousands of astronomers around the world who are not controlled by NASA or by the US government. Even if the US government wanted to cover up a "deadly event," they don't control the world or anywhere near all the scientists even in the US. They couldn't hide such an event even if they wanted to.
There is absolutely no scientific evidence to suggest that anything out of the ordinary is going to occur in 2012. It is all unscientific drivel made up by people who didn't take enough science in school. You don't need to worry about your kids suffering because the entire 2012 hullaballoo is a money making hoax. I have children and grandchildren and I'm not the least bit concerned about 2012. My 10 year old grandson asked me about it when he saw me writing answers on here. I explained to him that none of it was true or even possible, and that people had made it up to sell books. He asked me how I know it isn't true, so I explained to him that none of these events can happen by 2012 and most of them can't ever happen. Then he wanted to know why I am so sure that I'm right and the people writing the 2012 books are wrong. The answer to that was pretty simple. I and many of the members of our site are scientists. The people writing the 2012 books are not.
What is the alignment that hasn't happened for 26,000 years that they are talking about? Apparently, the last time this happened is linked to the ice ages.
Precession of the Earth takes roughly 26,000 years to complete, and all it does is trace out an imaginary cone or circle in the sky - it's essentially where the North pole 'points' at any given time. It currently 'points' towards what we handily call the pole star, Polaris, but thousands of years ago it would have pointed to something else entirely, and thousands of years hence it will point to something else entirely once more.
Because it traces out an imaginary circle, it can have imaginary starts and end points. I can accurately say we will complete this 26,000 year cycle in 2012, in the same way you can accurately say it will be completed in 10,000 years, or that someone else can say it was completed last week - it doesn't take much for all sorts of groups to hop onto the bandwagon so to speak and declare it to spell all sorts of stuff.
This so called alignment is not a single event you can pin on a single day like the 2012 hoaxers wants you to believe. If there is any effect of any alignment then it would be a very gradual change over the last 1000 years or more.
26000 years/360 degrees = 72.222 years to rotate one single degree.
We are talking about a 0.83 arc minutes PER year!
Like 3WMElliot said, what takes 26,000 years to complete is the precession. And precession isn't dangerous and isn't the reason for the ice age.
Well, I will predict that in the next 20,000 years, a precession will be complete. Yes, it's an accurate prediction, and more accurate than the prediction for 2012. However, we have the same chance that the precession will be complete in 2012 than in 2060, 2100 or 2847…
I am certainly not trying to debunk this site.
I agree with 3WMElliott on this.
Do not blindly believe what people tell you, ask questions even on this site and even if those people are scientists.
As 3WMElliott says, this is how science works through peer review.