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Okay so astronomers are predicting this thing to hit us in 2036 could it destory earth or what? I heard it could only do regional damage ,but i'm confused on if this is true.
Astronomers are NOT predicting that Apophis will hit us. It has a 1 in 250,000 chance of hitting us in 2036. Those are very slim odds. Also, at about 330 meters long, it is too small to do more than regional damage if it somehow beat those odds.
So even if it does hit us. It wouldn't do anything other then leave a crater? Thanks Diesel and Alene by the way i'm just curious about this
You're welcome Lakin. If it were to hit land, it would leave a crater and kill people in the area. If it hit in the ocean, it would cause tsunamis that would affect coastal areas.
You should keep in mind, though, that there is only a 0.0004% chance that it would even hit Earth. Then there is the added unlikelihood of your being in the area affected. Compare that to your 29% chance of dying of cardiovascular disease. You have a far greater chance of dying in an accident in your home than the chance of Apophis even hitting Earth, let alone being a danger to you.
You would have a bad day if it landed in your city.
Also note that even though an orbit is curved, it does follow this curve perfectly without deviation. Only when there is a force acting on it like a rocket engine it can change trajectory.
If the trajectory is going to hit earth then we only have to slightly speed it up or slow it down so the curved orbit changes completely.
It is actually surprisingly very hard for any natural object (none-powered) out there to hit Earth.
Check out these videos, they should give you a better understanding.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaW4Ol3_M1o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ReuLZ2quc
Neil DeGrasse Tyson FTW!
“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde
i'm not really allowed in youtube I tend to get viruses….>.<
So is it something I should keep an eye on or not?
It could definitely be a danger to earth. The thing is, they are waiting to see if the asteroid passes through the middle of a 600 mile range they call the "keyhole" when it comes by the first time on April 13th 2029, and if it does that means it will hit the earth on April 13th 2036 500 km west of Santa Monica. If it goes through other spaces in the "keyhole" then it's location of impact changes. With that said, there are plans underway that use a spaceship to deflect the asteroid away from earth making it miss us by changing its trajectory.
“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde
okay so if it hits earth would it just cause regional damage or could it kill us all?
He makes it sound more like regional damage, cause it would cause tsunamis. Like I said though, I wouldn't worry about it, he had a whole second video of how they plan on stopping it from hitting us.
“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde
oh okay well i'm not worryed now i was thinking it was like the metor that killed the dinos, but now that I see it wouldn't do much I'm okay thanx =]
Anytime, you are always welcome here of course.
“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde
A lot depends on stuff we don't know.
1) Cohesion: Is it a solid object, or a so-called 'gravel pile'? It is thought that many "objects" are collections of smaller objects, held together only very loosely.
2) Composition: Is it a stony iron object, or is it a carbonaceous chondrite? The first one (if it is a solid object) has a very good chance of making it down through the atmosphere in one piece. The second has a much lower chance of making it down, and could break up or explode harmlessly in the higher atmosphere. 80% of meteorites are carbonaceous chondrite.
3) Impact point: 70% of the earth is covered with water. Of the rest most is uninhabited, or only sparsely inhabited.
So, to cause a major disaster, the object would have to beat the odds to hit the earth in the first place. Then it would have to be the right composition, be a solid object, and hit in or near an inhabited area.
I'm not worried about Apophis. I'm worried about that lady I saw putting on mascara and while talking on her cell phone yesterday. I assume she was steering with her knee.
edit: You might look at the asteroids page, we discuss apophis there. I'll add a redirect from apophis to that page in a minute here.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Is a giant asteroid going to hit Antarctica in 2012 or it is all a hoax?
I found some websites talking about this, but I didn't find anything in NASA's website.
There is no Asteriod on collision course for earth………..this is a fact :)
Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Albert Einstein
What site was it? It was probably just another site with a bunch of raving believers of the hoax. How could they predict it? Let alone the exact location of where it is heading?
Everything is proceeding as I have forseen. Wait… when did that happen?
Is a giant asteroid going to hit Antarctica in 2012 or it is all a hoax?
You don't mean you have some uncertainty about this?
If it sound unlikely and it's predicted for 2012, what else could it be but a hoax?
It was discussed here.
Oh, right.
But what let me a little concerned was this (in Before it's news):
A University of British Columbia Professor published an online article that projected an 800m asteroid would hit Antarctica in the fall of 2012.
Yes, yes, this website is completely nonsense, but do you think that this mysterious professor wrote something about this asteroid?
I am not scared, just a little confused.
Here's more of what the website says:
A University of British Columbia Professor published an online article that projected an 800m asteroid would hit Antarctica in the fall of 2012. His article was on the www.phas.ubc.ca website for 2 days before it abruptly disappeared.
You need to become familiar with how conspiracy websites work. Basically, they just make it all up. Any 'scientist' or 'professor' is never named and their published work often mysteriously disappears. We'll probably hear next that this 'professor' has been assassinated because he was going to speak out.
Whatever thay say, if you treat it as bunk you are never going to go very far wrong.
More about Apophisis (nine-pseudo science) us here.
It is actually cool to understand how they calculate the orbit. Effects like light pressure and thus.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
PS:
Prograde means additional speed in the direction of the flying because a force is pushing it.
Retrograde is losing speed in the direction of the flying because a force is to slow it down.
If you want to understand orbits: install Orbiter 2010. The best way to learn it.
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/gallery.php
Maybe you should watch this video:
it is very interesting to see how orbits can change when you add more speed or slow down. Also how to change the plane of the orbit.
No asteroids can alter their plane and orbit unless you put a rocket on it. They also talk about timing.
http://www.orbiter-forum.com/showthread.php?s=acca95ef66f973666493afcc8ba7ceb4&t=19647
I went to "beforeitsnews" and realized that anybody can post anything there. It's not a news website, it's more like a blog. I don't think that story has any truth to it. It's easy to say somebody said something when there is no proof. Of course people ( like me ) who have already been scared of the whole thing can look at that and freak out about it. Still a scary thought I know.
“In all matters of opinion, our adversaries are insane.” - Oscar Wilde
I'll utilize this thread, I don't want to create another one.
Is it true that Russian scientists are saying that Apophis will hit Earth in 2036 and more and more scientists agree with them? Just saw this here and here.
I just wanted to point it out.
Edit: oh, never mind, I saw a very good recent article on Bad Astronomy.
Yes it is another news reporter taking stuff out of context and misrepresenting what the scientist really said.
To have an idea of how small Apophis is, I used a Google Earth tool.
In the image below, you can see Parc du Champs de Mars, in Paris, France, next to Eiffel Tower. The red line is the diameter of Apophis.
wow thats small…..I could run the length oh it lol
No, it's not that small. It's relatively small (it'd not cause much damage).
And the asteroid would pass through the atmosphere at high speed, which would increase the force of the impact.
If the asteroid hits this area near the Eiffel Tower, Paris and a part of France would be destroyed. If the asteroid hits the ocean, the wave would be quite tall, but not enough to achieve higher regions. Not the damage we see on Deep Impact.
It's an useless simulation, whereas the chances of impact involving Apophis and Earth are just 1:250,000.
Ah i see well I'm not gonna worry about it then. thnks guys
And the asteroid would pass through the atmosphere at high speed, which would increase the force of the impact.
How does that work then?
The frictional braking effect of the atmosphere would reduce the force of the impact.
Hmm, that's right. I thought that the speed would increase in this case. If it doesn't, better for Earth so.
It's right that…
The asteroid would be at about 30,000 mph and the damage would be unimaginable if the object is a huge asteroid with a diameter of 1 or 2 miles. The end of the world. Not in this case. Apophis has just 270 km (1/5 a mile). That's definitely not a big asteroid at all. :-)
The asteroid would be at about 30,000 mph
Where does this figure come from? Obaeyens, in his preliminary simulation, came up with a figure much lower than that. If you look here you'll see that it never exceeds much more than 7 km/s (16,000 mph) at close approaches.
Pulling figures out of thin air is the tactic of the doom-mongers.
Just saw that number (30,000 mph) in a HowStuffWorks article about asteroids. Thought it was right.
30,000 mph is roughly the orbital velocity of Jupiter, so most asteroids are faster than that. Then there is a wide range of orbit shapes and sizes, leading to a wide range of velocities. Also, the relative velocity between an asteroid and the Earth is usually much less than any orbital velocity because the two bodies are often moving in roughly the same direction.
http://www.brighthub.com/science/space/articles/64710.aspx
The size estimates I've found for Apophis range from 250 to 330 meters. It's too small to do more than regional damage if it somehow beat the astronomical odds against it and we had an impact in 2036. If it hit the ocean, there would be tsunamis on the coastlines around that ocean, but the miles-high tsunamis are fiction. We would have lots of warning if it were actually going to strike, and would evacuate the areas threatened.
It's pretty much a moot point though, because the odds are so miniscule that it would even hit us, much less that such an impact would cause your death. Your chance of dying from falling in the shower is thousands of times greater.
I am still trying to simulate it with the orbital elements I have found, but so far I simply cannot make it collide in 2036 after the 2029 pass. And the reason is stupidly simple that a tiny change in orbit makes it completely miss Earth again and again and again.
There is no such thing as we getting lucky that it misses Earth.
It is the other way around, it would be a lucky shot when it did hit Earth because the orbit is destined to fail to hit Earth.
I did read about Apophis in a Bad Astronomy post, and after the close approach in 2029, it must pass through a "keyhole", then hit Earth. If it doesn't pass through the keyhole (1/250,000 chances it won't pass), the asteroid won't hit Earth.
That is what I meant, the asteroid is destined to fail to hit that keyhole.
It is like trying to shoot a bullet on a 1 cm target from 100 km distance. Miss that target and you miss it all.
We are talking about 249,999 failures for one lucky shot.
If it hit the ocean, there would be tsunamis on the coastlines around that ocean, but the miles-high tsunamis are fiction.
I had a play with an asteroid impact program. It turns out that a shoreline 1,000 km from the site of an ocean impact of Apophis would see a tsunami 1 metre high.
