2 questions: Apophis + Maya

2 questions: Apophis + Maya

AnnieBanannie (guest) 08 Feb 2011 23:42

Sorry if this is the wrong section. I have two questions regarding 99942 Apophis and the Maya.
1. Do you think 99942 Apophis is a problem? If it crashed in to the Earth, what would happen? Im stumped by that part. And biggest question about Apophis is will it crash in to Earth? What do you think of the possiblity.
2. Since the Maya are still alive, what do they think about this end of the world business? just kind of curious :)
Thanks for helping me out. Apophis freaks me out :( but hopefully all will end well :)
AnnieBanannie

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Lindsay88 08 Feb 2011 23:50

Maya elders do not believe in this doomsday stuff. They're actually quite annoyed. They say this time is about celebration not doomsday!
Apophis is not going to hit Earth. If you look at the neo project (near earth objects) it will show you the probability of it hitting earth and it says it's not going to. Scientists even say it may become even less possible after they study it more. So nothing to worry about

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AnnieBanannie (guest) 08 Feb 2011 23:52

haha I can see the elders being annoyed. Still curious about Apophis though. About how big of a chance is 1 in 250000? I heard winning the powerball is more rare. Clear it up? thank you :)

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Lindsay88 08 Feb 2011 23:53

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
That's the website.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

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Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Lindsay88 08 Feb 2011 23:54

It's very very very rare. You're more likely to get struck by lightening or die from choking on your dinner. Seriously, its not something to be worried about

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Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Lindsay88 08 Feb 2011 23:55

"Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."

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AnnieBanannie (guest) 08 Feb 2011 23:56

Good :) What do you think the probability of another NEO coming out of nowhere in the near future is?

Lindsay88 08 Feb 2011 23:59

They don't "come out of nowhere" nasa has a great view of the sky and we will know.
There are NO asteroids nigh enough to cause damage that will come close to hitting us . It's easier to see the large ones so its almost impossible to miss them. The small ones, even if they come towards us, will just break up into our atmosphere.
So, nothing at all to worry about. We would know if there was something close to hitting us.

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AnnieBanannie (guest) 09 Feb 2011 00:01

Sorry to keep on bugging you with these questions but I have one more maybe not so related to doomsday…but kind of. I know that theres people that make religious doomsday predictions. How do people that are not of that religion feel? What if the religion doesnt apply to them?

Lindsay88 09 Feb 2011 00:05

You're not bugging anyone. That's what everyone is here for :)
Most of the time people who make religious doomsday claims say that if you don't believe them, then you wont be saved. But if you know about the Bible, you know it is not that way at all.
Plus, the Bible says NO ONE not even Jesus or e angels in Heaven will know when the Second Coming will happen. And theres no such thing as a Rapture. We will all be taken to Heaven before anything bad happens.
I don't believe the Second Coming will be any time soon though. There a lot of things that are supposed to happen before that time that have not happened yet. And won't happen in our lifetimes. So don't worry :) hope I helped!

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AnnieBanannie (guest) 09 Feb 2011 00:07

Thank you so much Lindsay. You helped a TON! Glad this site exists :)

Lindsay88 09 Feb 2011 00:08

You're welcome. I am too, its helped me a lot as well..and if you have any more questions, we will be happy to help!!!

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3WMElliott 09 Feb 2011 00:12

If the Bible cannot provide me with enough (or indeed any) evidence to get me to believe it's the literal word of God or what have you, any claims for anything based on that very same Bible will be met with the very same amount of 'just not fussed' from me.

I couldn't care less if this entire Universe was created by the Flying Spaghetti Monster, as long as he or his followers showed me some evidence worth looking at. I've not seen any such evidence for him, or Thor, Zeus, Mbombo, Nanabozho, Vishvakarman, Rod or indeed God, and until I do, we've got to go with the evidence we can test and can prove.

In the case of 2012 that evidence simply states that there is nothing in these claims of doom, they're nonsense.

obaeyens 09 Feb 2011 18:08

How do people that are not of that religion feel?

Just imagine that some guy tells you that a black spider man will come and destroy this planet with the slime taken from a wild snarlak. That is the feeling I get when someone comes of with the rapture story.

It is a good story for a nice fiction movie. But that is all it is, just a fiction story.

ThreeFangCat 09 Feb 2011 00:02

I don't think you can give a probability of an unknown, other than to observe that, from historical averages, the chance seems small. That's just being honest with you.

It's worth mentioning that we are in the process of coming up with a way to move NEO's, if necessary. Regardless of political thoughts concerning Obama, he gave NASA word the go on developing a defense, and it seems like a good idea.

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Alene Y 09 Feb 2011 04:46

Hi AnnieBanannie,
It looks like you already have some really good answers. I'd just like to add that Apophis is only about 330 meters (1,000 feet) long. It isn't large enough to do more than regional damage if it somehow beat those astronomical (pun intended) odds and impacted Earth. If it hit land, it would destroy everything in the impact area. If it hit water, which is more likely since the Earth's surface is over 70% water, it would cause tsunamis on the coasts surrounding the strike. However, 1 in a quarter of a million is very tiny odds. I don't know if anyone mentioned what year you are talking about, but Apophis has no chance of hitting before the 2036 pass. We will be learning more about it as we continue to track its orbit. In order to be able to hit us in 2036, it would have to pass through a 600 meter gravitational keyhole in 2029. Imagine how tiny that keyhole is in space.

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Tomy2011 09 Feb 2011 00:17

1. Do you think 99942 Apophis is a problem?

No. Well, if it were in a collision course to Earth it would be disastrous, but the chances are just 1 in 250000… heh, almost nothing.
But take care. It's more likely that you will die being trampled than die because a meteor strikes Earth in the future.

2. Since the Maya are still alive, what do they think about this end of the world business?

The modern maya are completely against 2012 and they are tired of questions.

Moo (guest) 09 Feb 2011 12:41

You're wrong about the amount of damage Apophis would do. It would largely be coastal region only damage, if it hit the ocean. Which it would, if it was going to hit us. Yeah, it'd be 'bad', but it wouldn't be world ending for people not on the shores of the Atlantic.

So… yeah. Apophis isn't remotely a big deal.

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

TheGreatJuju 09 Feb 2011 13:27

…if it were in a collision course to Earth it would be disastrous

Not disastrous for the entire planet, maybe disastrous for certain areas. If it hits land, the damage will likely be regional. If it hits the ocean, that might actually be worse, because, as Moo notes, entire coastal regions will be threatened.

However, at 1 in 250,000 probability that is likely to get even smaller as further observations are made, 99942 Apophis in all likelihood won't hit anything. Even if it does collide with Earth, ample warning will be available, giving people time to evacuate the danger zone(s).

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"They tell you, but do you believe it? If so, why?"

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Last edited on 09 Feb 2011 13:27 by TheGreatJuju Show more

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

bikenbeer2000 09 Feb 2011 13:53

From the NEO Program website

Mitigation was not specifically studied, but the team found small variations in the energy absorption and reflection properties of Apophis' surface are sufficient to cause enough trajectory change to obscure the difference between an impact and a miss in 2036. Changing the amount of energy Apophis absorbs by half a percent as late as 2018 - for example by covering a 40 x 40 meter (130 x 130 foot) patch with lightweight reflective materials (an 8 kg payload) - can change its position in 2036 by a minimum of one Earth radius.

So in the highly unlikely event that it is headed for us, it can still be deflected.

Re: 2 questions: Apophis + Maya

Tomy2011 09 Feb 2011 16:00

Well, sorry, I thought Apophis was huge (actually, it has "only" 1480 feet, or 450 meters, in lenght).
To destroy the world it must have at least some kilometers, right?