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apophis (guest) 29 Apr 2011 19:43
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=99942;orb=1
forward to january 19 2013
and watch apophisat at a distance of 0.01 au
someone tell me if this is true?
apophis (guest), 29 Apr 2011 19:43
The closest approach in 2013 is actually on January 9th, at 0.096 AU. That sounds close, but it works out to be about 9 million miles, or about 35 times the distance to the moon.
So, yes, it's true, yes, we know about it, and no, it's nothing to worry about.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Not 0.01 AU but 0.1 AU. 15 million kilometres or 9.3 million miles or 40 times the distance to the Moon.
In the circumstances, your summary 'apophis is hitting us!' is somewhat wide of the mark, as will be Apophis.
It will be relatively close to Earth, but it won't hit the Earth. Also, 0,01 AU is bigger than you think. 1 AU is the distance between Sun and Earth (149,597,870.7 km). 0,1 AU is… ridiculously far away - about 14 million km away from Earth, which means 38 times the distance to the Moon -.
I would actually like to know, when and where does a comet hit the so called "keyhole" ?
- “I fear one day I'll meet God, he'll sneeze and I won't know what to say.”
It's not a hole and it's not a key (I hope so). But it's a name they gave to a part of the space that when something goes there it will hit the Earth, because of attraction.
I think that's it.
Im pretty sure this is the vid i saw it mentioned in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ReuLZ2quc
But he says nothing about how far away that "keyhole" is, that's pretty much what i would like to know. How long those it take from a comet to cross it, before it hits/come near earth?
- “I fear one day I'll meet God, he'll sneeze and I won't know what to say.”
Well, the 'keyhole' is 600 meters across, and somewhere 'out there' in space. If Apophis passes through this specific region in 2029 then 7 years later it will hit the earth. However, the chances of it actually passing through the keyhole are pretty remote, and the current rating of the chances of a 2036 impact are (if I recall correctly) 4 in 1 million or 1:250,000
The 'keyhole' is not a specific region in space that will cause anything and everything to be sucked down to us, but rather it is a zone of interaction that would be different for each object. There is not a fixed 'keyhole' in space.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Thank you so much for the explanation! :)
- “I fear one day I'll meet God, he'll sneeze and I won't know what to say.”
referring to apophis only, there is a "gravitational keyhole" that if the asteroid passes through at the right date and time in 2029 will cause its orbit to be bent enough to impact the earth in 2036.
After the 2013 pass we will probably hear that it will not pass through the keyhole (which is only 600 meters across, if I recall correctly), and that it will therefore miss us in 2036.
"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind
Wasn't aware of that. A bit freaked out now.
Don't be. I watched a few interviews with Neil degrasse Tyson on the possible impact of this asteroid. Apparently even if it passes through this keyhole (which is highly unlikely) they have worked out a way to put an object next to the asteroid and use said objects gravitational pull to tug at the asteroid and therefore move it out of impact trajectory. If it did impact earth, it's only large enough to do localised damage, maybe a small city would be destroyed, although it would probably be an ocean impact resulting in tsunami's, but in any case I'd think we have the time to evacuate areas in danger. This asteroid is not a planet killer by any means.
The great thing about science is, it's true whether you believe in it or not.
Yeah, it's just not a nice feeling, as i was already comfortable in the knowledge that by the time Apophis does make it's closest approach in 20+ years, we will have a wide variety of ways of dealing with it, if it gets that far. This 'close' pass just caught me off guard.
David, perhaps you should think about creating an account here. It seems like you're sticking around, and it would make you seem more genuine, i think.
I don't know about a "wide vatiety" of ways, but we do have several orbit mitigation methods being studied in case we need them at some point.
There really is no reason to be concerned about something that has a 1 in 250.000 chance of happening and is too small to cause more than regional damage if it somehow beat those odds.
For crying out loud! You have about a 30% chance of dying of heart disease. That is 75,000 times the possibility of Apophis even hitting Earth. Since we would have plenty of warning and would evacuate the affected area, that reduces your chances of bing killed by it to something infinitesimally small. Your time would be better spent worrying about chupacabras.
I know how you feel 'caught off guard', Shirebury. I think perhaps the titles of some of these posts would be more beneficial if they were, err… Less terrifying! Lol. No offence to the original poster (I have seen it happen a lot), but a title like that I reckon could scare off a lot of the folks who are very afraid and just discovering this 2012 oasis! :)
"FEAR: False Evidence Appearing Real" - Unknown
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" - Carl Sagan
"Your leftovers called… They want their tin foil back." - Personal note to doomsayers.
They would be easier to find and keep track of if new posts were titled in a way that has something to do with the subject. For instance, if the title of this one had been Apophis Orbit, it would be easy to go back to it any time, such as when someone else asks about it again a few weeks or months later. It would also avoid the "OMG! Someone must have discovered something new!" reaction.
The chances are low and if it did scientists would bl0w it up or change its direction of orbit
Technology in 20+ years
Die asteroid
No man knows the day nor the hour when the world will end.
Become a debunker and help out those that are being fed up with lies spread by False scientists going after you'r money.
Practice what you want to and dont give up on you'r dreams my dream is to become a basketball player 'NBA'
more info on another comet
if you didnt see the course of comet "honda" you should have a look at that too
as it also has a close approach to earth
"Close approach" doesn't mean "hit". I'm pretty sure that the astronomers at NASA are tracking it and, if anything, they will warn us and try to destroy it before it's too late.
IM FIRAN MAH LAZER!
No man knows the day nor the hour when the world will end.
Become a debunker and help out those that are being fed up with lies spread by False scientists going after you'r money.
Practice what you want to and dont give up on you'r dreams my dream is to become a basketball player 'NBA'
Thanks to advances in technology, we're seeing more and more of the comets and asteroids that come closer to us. Previously, we've just been blissfully ignorant of near misses.
To whoever changed the title and summary of this thread, good job!
nice job on changing the name of the thread and throwing it in a different forum so it cant be discussed widely.
you could of at least only changed the name of the thread without moving it.
how is a britney sprears thread for important than this one and it stays on the main forum and mine is moved?
i dont give a sh*t what you say this time
there are some people i just dont trust here now ill let you fire back at me with accusations of me being a troll
but you are doing the same thing youtube users do when they are debunked they delete the message
you moved and edited mine!!
now i know i am right!
i will keep on posting my thoughts and concerns seaching for genuine answers
i have also noticed alot of people post their threads with the same style of title such as
HELP!! please explain!
I AM TERRIFIED.
and so on … and they still stay on the main forum.
so why was mine moved for no reason? and was changed?
i must of hit the nail on the head with this one hu?
keep on editing deleting and moving me
it will eventualy only make people think and question what this site is for if not to post your fears and thoughts and ask for help and explanation
How exactly have you "hit the nail on the head"? By misreading 0.1 AU as 0.01?
by the way..
how the f*ck would you know this thing isint going to hit us?
are you up there in space?
this asteroid could hit another asteroid on its path and change its course
and on wikipedia it sais that there is still a chance it would hit us in the future
so who the f*ck are you to change the post summery
this has now made me raise alot of questions and doubt on this site that appearantly does not let you express your fears or talk about them freely when there is some truth in it.
i have now come to a conclusion that you are no better than the fear mongering freaks on youtube that delete comments when they are debunked
you do the same here so how does that make you any better than them?
any idiot would know that you cant promise it wont hit us!
just like nasa said they cant promise anything because there is always a chance of anything, they said this about elenin about honda and apophis
and they say it almost about any object that makes it way in our direction.
so whoever moved this thread and cjanged the summery …. your an idiot!
either you think you know it all
or you just dont want people to know or start talking about this subject.
you have now been debunked!
and if you ask how and why?? well you cant promise anyone an asteroid aint gonna hit!
It your not satisfied by anyone trying to help you here then I'd advise you to leave. Everyone here has spent a long time trying to help you, one thread you created was moved to off topic because apophis has nothing to do with 2012, and you throw a hissy fit!
The great thing about science is, it's true whether you believe in it or not.
how the f*ck would you know this thing isint going to hit us?
Physics. Laws that have been around and proven to work before anyone in their wildest dreams thought space travel was even possible. A bit of Newton, a bit of Kepler, bobs your uncle.
this asteroid could hit another asteroid on its path and change its course
Considering it's already tracked by professional and amateur alike, don't you think the very second someone finds it in the wrong place red flags will be raised everywhere, prompting not only an immediate recalculation of the orbit using those centuries old laws of physics, but also everyone who wasn't tracking it at that very time to then go out and confirm the new orbit.
And the chances of Apophis hitting another asteroid in the first place are equally as small as it ever hitting Earth, if not insanely smaller, but not impossible.
and on wikipedia it sais that there is still a chance it would hit us in the future
And if you read both Wikipedia and what I'm sure numerous posters on here have said, that chance is currently at 1 in 250,000. The odds are so against it that the Torino Scale measure it at Level 0 - No Threat.
this has now made me raise alot of questions and doubt on this site that appearantly does not let you express your fears or talk about them freely when there is some truth in it.
While I don't know who edited the post, I know this is a topic that has come up before. Perhaps you could have run a search to see if we'd discussed it. Perhaps you could have looked at the Asteroids page, seen a mention of Apophis, seen that it had nothing to do with 2012 and calmed down before posting.
Damn right there are posts scattered all over the place, perhaps we should go through a clear out just because this post has highlighted it. Perhaps we should mash together all instances of Apophis or Brittney Spears or the Bible Code into one thread, who knows.
i have now come to a conclusion that you are no better than the fear mongering freaks on youtube that delete comments when they are debunked
Yet your comment is still here, you can still post on it, and we're still open for you to post more. Yes we sound exactly like the YouTube Tin Foil Hat Brigade.
just like nasa said they cant promise anything because there is always a chance of anything, they said this about elenin about honda and apophis and they say it almost about any object that makes it way in our direction.
There's quite a difference between "chance of impact" and "so damn far away I don't know why you are fretting about it". Apophis will come within the orbit of some of our satellites. Honda will be 6 million miles out, some 24 times the distance of here to the Moon, Elenin something like 90 times further out from here to the Moon.
Once you understand the concepts of distance in space, you'll get a bit of perspective on who actually says what, and by that I guess I mean on what proponents think NASA say, rather than what they do say.
so whoever moved this thread and cjanged the summery …. your an idiot! either you think you know it all or you just dont want people to know or start talking about this subject.
Out of interest I'd like to know, but I can guess their reasoning. Apophis had been talked about elsewhere, it's not related to 2012, it's doesn't need to be front and center on the boards.
you have now been debunked! and if you ask how and why?? well you cant promise anyone an asteroid aint gonna hit!
That's not a debunking, that's not understanding probability.
You have a 1 in 67 chance of dying in a car accident in America. I'm about to debunk that by saying "well you can't promise that I'm going face first through my windshield tomorrow". Doesn't make sense, does it?
how the f*ck would you know this thing isint going to hit us?
Math, astronomy, etc… things, needless to you.
this asteroid could hit another asteroid on its path and change its course
You forgot the part it is destroyed. And astronomers all around the world are tracking thousands of asteroids, so if some asteroid is going to hit Apophis, they'd know what would happen to the asteroid and how big is the asteroid.
But nothing until now.
and on wikipedia it sais that there is still a chance it would hit us in the future
Yes, but it's not iminent and the chances are just… 1:250,000. Consider this chance? No.
so who the f*ck are you to change the post summery
We are 2012hoax.
this has now made me raise alot of questions and doubt on this site that appearantly does not let you express your fears or talk about them freely when there is some truth in it.
Who moved the thread is right. It's off-topic. It's not related to 2012 at all (and I think the same thing can be done to other threads).
so whoever moved this thread and cjanged the summery …. your an idiot!
You need help.
you have now been debunked!
Hahahahahahahaha.
and if you ask how and why?? well you cant promise anyone an asteroid aint gonna hit!
"Promise", no. But we can say that the chances are slim and an impact in the future is very unlikely.
You must be a young child to react the way you are if not you sure are acting childish.
Come on man stop your whining and get over your self please.
No need to get all upset because of a thread that has been moved.
You dont own this site and all the people here that work on this site do it for free they do not get payed to help people like you.
So you should straiten up you maners a say thank you to this wonderful people that provide information on this site.
Please have some respect and watch you language there are some young kids that come and read this forums.
Your post wasn't edited, only the title and the summary. Your incorrect distance of .01 AU is even there exactly as you posted it. You got tons of good answers.
I really don't understand why you are in such a snit about a title that tells what the thread is actually about and a summary that is 250,000 times more accurate than your fear mongering one.
You know what? David? 2012 is real. You are going to die. Quick, lock yourself in a bunker for the rest of your life.
Just stop posting here if all you're going to do is spaz out and try to cause trouble. We're better off with your attempts at turning recovering individuals back around to the pit of despair, and against us.
Get a life, or dig a hole and stay in it.
… with out your attempts. Lol too pissed for reading comprehension.
hey moo how about a good ol f*** youuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!!!!!!?????
Please, David. We cannot completely debunk a possibility of the asteroid hitting us. It's just that from the current path of this asteroid and all the other asteroids near it, the chances are slimmer than let's say… being crushed by a hot-air balloon. And please… don't get that mad if a person moves your post. There's a good reason for it.
Our fears are more numerous than our dangers, and we suffer more in our imagination than in reality.
Never mind. The good reason has already been provided. This asteroid is not expected to hit at 2012. There, now please stop suspecting us. I'm sure it's insulting to the many people who take pains to research and debunk your claims.
Our fears are more numerous than our dangers, and we suffer more in our imagination than in reality.
