Lake Toba Supervolcano

Lake Toba Supervolcano

Matthew (guest) 02 May 2011 19:08

It all started when a scientist called Professor Brian Cox, a popular physicist and astronomer here in Britain, appeared on television recently to talk about his top 5 'things to be worried about'. At number 5 came supervolacanoes. I thought he would talk about Yellowstone, but he said that the caldera had uplifted significantly in the past 20 years. I can't find any evidence of this; the only thing that comes close is part of the 'more recent activity' section on the Lake Toba wikipedia page:
"Some parts of the caldera have experienced uplift due to partial refilling of the magma chamber, for example pushing Samosir Island and the Uluan Peninsula above the surface of the lake. The lake sediments on Samosir Island show that it has been uplifted by at least 450 metres (1,476 ft)[9] since the cataclysmic eruption. Such uplifts are common in very large calderas, apparently due to the upward pressure of unerupted magma."
This doesn't necessarily mean that it will erupt soon, will it? I'm skeptical of professor Cox's claims because 1: he's not a geologist and 2: he also goes on to claim that the 2023 meteor is a threat, which I thought was debunked years ago.
The Wikipedia page also says 'Recent highly-localized earthquake activity may initiate magmatic activity of this colossal global climate modifier'. On the page, there's no evidence to support this claim, but there does seem to be an increased amount of earthquake activity. Does the volcano cause the activity, or could it be vice versa?
I also found this link to a forum, which shows that there are a worrying amount of quakes in that region. Someone also claims that the graph looks like a 'harmonic tremor', which has me worried. However, I don't know too much about the forum, but it looks at little bit woo-ish. It was also posted in 2005.
http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/31/463/pg1/index.php
So what do you make of all this? The only thing that's keeping me from insanity is the Straight Dope article on Yellowstone, which says that the predicted chances of a supereruption (or whatever they're called) within the next 50 years range from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 100000. But no one seems to really be paying much attention to Toba.

Matthew (guest) 02 May 2011 19:10

That should read 'I thought he would talk about Yellowstone, but he said that the Lake Toba caldera had uplifted significantly in the past 20 years.'

Re: Lake Toba Supervolcano

3WMElliott 02 May 2011 20:27

So what do you make of all this?

Perspective. Whether geologist or not, Brian Cox is well aware that humans should be looking at their own planet for direct threats.

The rest of his top 5 include plagues and viruses, supernova's (which he picks for it being fascinating moreso than a threat), asteroids (where he mentions Apophis' effects were it to hit, not that it will hit; and that asteroids in general are a threat, simply because there's so many of them), and our own stupidity.

If we're going to rank human stupidity as more threatening than a super volcano, it's going to be because human stupidity is a proven killer on a regular basis. And let's also not forget the tone of the top 5 - jokes all the way the through despite the severity of the threat in question.

Someone also claims that the graph looks like a 'harmonic tremor', which has me worried. However, I don't know too much about the forum, but it looks at little bit woo-ish. It was also posted in 2005. http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/31/463/pg1/index.php

After an incredibly quick glance of the homepage I was drawn to the phrase "Facts Prove Global Warming A Myth". Unfortunately, the facts show quite the opposite, that climate change is in effect and that effect is that it's getting hotter. Whether that line of thought has spread through the rest of the site I do not know, I don't really see how it's important to clear up if we're talking about Lake Toba either. So I've probably could have skipped writing this paragraph. Hmm.

Re: Lake Toba Supervolcano

Alene Y 02 May 2011 21:44

According to the USGS, the chances of such an eruption occurring in our lifetime is vanishingly small.

Re: Lake Toba Supervolcano

Tomy2011 02 May 2011 19:24

A supereruption in Lake Toba is unpredictable. That's the truth.

The only thing that's keeping me from insanity is the Straight Dope article on Yellowstone, which says that the predicted chances of a supereruption (or whatever they're called) within the next 50 years range from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 100000. But no one seems to really be paying much attention to Toba.

Yellowstone chances are 1 in 1000 to 1 in 100000. Lake Toba is a supervolcano too and it's not very different than Yellowstone. Both have almost the same chances to explode. The bigger chance you could expect, I think, is +/- 1/100 to 1/1000.