Had some questions to make an Informed decision

Had some questions to make an Informed decision

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 01:19

So… I've been reading up on current events that I accidentally found about Comet Elenin, Planet X, and all the crap with 2012 and we're screwed theory. I'm not worried or omg I'm depressed about it because we're all going to die someday anyway, I would rather spend my last days having fun then crying about something I can't control. I'm a very logical person and like to make informed decisions and get both sides of the story before I form my opinion. Enough about me, now to the point.

I was reading about the elenin comet and the conspiracy about how it's not a comet and could be the ever so spooky Nibiru. I'm not saying that it is Nibiru and what not, my only problem is that reading various articles about comet elenin is their are some discrepancies in the articles. For instance an article in Russia will say that the coma is 100,000km long and another article will say it's 1,000,000km or 100km etc… I don't know if these are misprints or misinterpretations, but having a hard time deciding exactly what the true information is as it's a little different throughout the world.

My other major concern was that comet elenin on the Nasa JPL and how close it is now, but no one can see it.

Nasa JPL as of June 14th Here: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cad=1 Comet elenin is 1.8AU away almost in Mars orbit.

People are saying that a comet this close or even as close as Saturn 9.2AU away should be clearly visible and definitely visible with a coma of 100,000km or greater. Everyone on youtube and all over the web aren't complaining about that the can't see it and their is some tricky at play. I've searched for photos of elenin and have only found one photo Here: http://reinep.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/comet-elenin1.jpg?w=555&h=305 I'm not an astronomer, so I don't really know how to take this information. But I would like to clear up why people can't see comet elenin or its coma? Why their is only one valid photo for it, seems like there would be a lot more photos. And the exact specs and data on comet elenin?

Sorry for making a long post, wanted to make sure I was being informative enough and thanx for the time. If you have any questions or need anymore information about what I'm asking, please feel free to post.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

3WMElliott 15 Jun 2011 02:06

For instance an article in Russia will say that the coma is 100,000km long and another article will say it's 1,000,000km or 100km etc… I don't know if these are misprints or misinterpretations, but having a hard time deciding exactly what the true information is as it's a little different throughout the world.

It's around 100,000km, larger if I recall. That figure also comes from Leonid Elenin himself, whom I for one would deem a good source of information for something he's been looking at for 6 months now.

My other major concern was that comet elenin on the Nasa JPL and how close it is now, but no one can see it.

People are saying that a comet this close or even as close as Saturn 9.2AU away should be clearly visible and definitely visible with a coma of 100,000km or greater.

There are hundreds of thousands of objects in the asteroid belt that are closer, bigger than the comet, and always there ready to be seen, but I'm willing to bet you've never seen them either.

Comets can look spectacular, but they can also look rather dull. We're talking about a tiny (cosmically speaking) speck of ice and dirt that is constantly shedding material in the form of it's coma. It's a fuzzy blob that is just too small and too faint for your eyes to see. But for telescopes it's another matter entirely, it's certainly visible if you know what you're doing - we've got a few posters here who have imaged it themselves and continue to do so.

Now with regards to Saturn, I hope you can spot the fault with the claim. Saturn is (if I've got my maths right) 40,000 times bigger than this comet. It may be further away, but it has much higher albedo, around 0.4 compared to a comet's average of 0.04, something along those lines - the closer to 1 the more reflective the surface.

The coma and Saturn have pretty much the same area though, but of course the coma is diffuse, it's a few particles spread over a vast distance rather than a vast distance packed full of particles.

The more we look at the coma the more of an idea we can get of whether it will ever enter the naked-eye limit. It's currently too dim to see, and while initial estimates were good, they may not hold out over the next few months. We may not see it at all without telescopic aid, but where's the problem with that? Sometimes you see 'em, sometimes you don't.

Everyone on youtube …

Theeeeres the problem. Seriously though, the Internet is a bit of a minefield because proponents have leaped onto this like no other object. Some of these people desperately want this comet to be something it's not just to justify their wacky beliefs. It will come and go in October or so, and proponents will do what they always do - continue to lie about it or completely forget they ever mentioned it.

The funny thing is that nobody has ever said it will definitely be visible. The hope was that it was, as time goes on and more is learned, the hope fades away. Not everything 'close' is visible, especially when it comes to space.

That photo (and I use the word photo loosely) looks rather suspicious to me, maybe someone else can narrow that down further. It show's a comet, sure, just because it's labeled Elenin, doesn't mean it is Elenin.

But I would like to clear up why people can't see comet elenin or its coma? Why their is only one valid photo for it, seems like there would be a lot more photos. And the exact specs and data on comet elenin?

It's not easily visible unless you know where and how to look at it. Right now that means with a telescope. I don't know what defines 'valid' in terms of photos, but again a quick look through some forum threads here will shows you some images from our members. Ultimately, Elenin isn't the most spectacular or interesting object, you know? It doesn't demand constant monitoring, it just happens to come 'close' or whatever.

As for specs and data, the links on the Wikipedia page will have you covered - yes it really is as simple as reading Wikipedia sometimes.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

ThreeFangCat 15 Jun 2011 02:39

It will come and go in October or so, and proponents will do what they always do - continue to lie about it or completely forget they ever mentioned it.

Anyone remember back fall when Jupiter and Venus were getting brighter and the 2012ers were crying how Nibiru was causing it because it was lighting them up? Let's set aside that Nibiru couldn't be seen, so there is no rational reason for it to cause another object to gain brightness. Nonetheless, they claimed it was proof of Nibiru, and they boldly predicted the trend would continue all the way to 2012.

What happened? Jupiter and Venus stopped getting brighter… then they started to get dimmer. The gain and subsequent loss of apparent magnitude followed the predictions astronomers had given years ago: it was a matter of the distance to Earth, more than anything else. But, as you might guess, the 2012ers just forgot all about it and jumped onto the next bandwagon.

Speaking of which, that's about when Elenin came around.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

TheGreatJuju 15 Jun 2011 02:10

For instance an article in Russia will say that the coma is 100,000km long and another article will say it's 1,000,000km or 100km etc… I don't know if these are misprints or misinterpretations, but having a hard time deciding exactly what the true information is as it's a little different throughout the world.

You can probably chalk some of that up to typos, and other times you will see different sizes because one source might report the apparent diameter of the coma (the gas/dust cloud), while another might be estimating the size of the nucleus (the solid center, which is much smaller). The comet's founder estimates the size of the nucleus to be 3 or 4 km diameter.

My other major concern was that comet elenin on the Nasa JPL and how close it is now, but no one can see it.

We can see it … with telescopes. A couple of people on this board have been posting photos of it.

People are saying that a comet this close or even as close as Saturn 9.2AU away should be clearly visible and definitely visible with a coma of 100,000km or greater.

Who says that?

Everyone on youtube…

Ahhhhh, that's who.

I've searched for photos of elenin and have only found one photo Here: http://reinep.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/comet-elenin1.jpg?w=555&h=305 I'm not an astronomer, so I don't really know how to take this information.

There are some here and here.

But I would like to clear up why people can't see comet elenin or its coma? Why their is only one valid photo for it, seems like there would be a lot more photos. And the exact specs and data on comet elenin?

Comets aren't particularly bright until they get much closer to the Sun than Elenin currently is. My planetarium software calculates the apparent magnitude at this moment to be 13.87, which is well below the threshold of naked-eye visibility. A 3-4 km rock surrounded by a diffuse ball of dust and gas isn't expected to show up well at nearly 2 AU, and it doesn't.

There aren't many photos of Elenin because there isn't much to see. See forum threads linked above.

It is nearly impossible to get "exact specs" on a comet, simply due to the nature of what a comet is. The coma makes precisely measuring the nucleus from range a very difficult task. The most up-to-date information will be on the JPL page you linked to, and Leonid Elenin sometimes posts about it on the SpaceObs website. He's active in comments and will probably even answer any questions you have (just bear in mind that English is his second language).

Hopefully that helps. Cheers.

---

"They tell you, but do you believe it? If so, why?"

http://www.undeadrufus.com

Last edited on 15 Jun 2011 02:15 by TheGreatJuju Show more

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 17:36

Comets aren't particularly bright until they get much closer to the Sun than Elenin currently is.

Closer is only one part of the story, also the viewing angle seen from earth and the location of the sun plays an important part in seeing it. If we look at it head on, then we won't see much of a tail than when we look sideways.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

bikenbeer2000 15 Jun 2011 02:39

I was reading about the elenin comet and the conspiracy about how it's not a comet and could be the ever so spooky Nibiru

The doomsday nuts are let down by the continuing failure of their beloved Nibiru to appear, so they've latched on to an entirely harmless, tiny object which happened to make the news just as they were becoming desperate.

For instance an article in Russia will say that the coma is 100,000km long and another article will say it's 1,000,000km or 100km etc…

The coma of a comet consists of gas and dust particles driven from the comet's nucleus by the radiation of the Sun. The size is therefore usually changing as well as difficult to measure and varies considerably from comet to comet. I very much doubt it would reach 1,000,000 km. The people who come up with these claims are probably talking about the tail, but are too ignorant to know the difference. The size of any comet's coma or tail don't make it any more threatening. The material is so tenuous that it would constitute a hard vacuum on the Earth's surface and we have also passed through many comet tails without they slightest ill effect.

My other major concern was that comet elenin on the Nasa JPL and how close it is now, but no one can see it.

People with large telescopes can see it, but it seems to be fainter than expected. There is nothing unusual in this, comets often fail to live up to expectations.

People are saying that a comet this close or even as close as Saturn 9.2AU away should be clearly visible and definitely visible with a coma of 100,000km or greater.

A comet at 9.2 AU distance is almost certain to be invisible to the naked eye. Most comets are small and invisible to the naked eye even when much closer. This is all perfectly normal.

I've searched for photos of elenin and have only found one photo

There are plenty of links to pictures of the comet taken by obaeyens, one of our members, in this thread.

But I would like to clear up why people can't see comet elenin or its coma?

Like most comets, it isn't very bright. Astronomers aren't expecting it to be very bright. Assorted nutcases on YouTube and elsewhere hope it will become bright because an object which remains invisible to the naked eye isn't going to attract any attention and is a poor substitute for their fake Nibiru.

And the exact specs and data on comet elenin?

The details of its orbit can be found here. The column headed Delta gives its distance from the Earth in Astronomical Units (AU). 1 AU = 150 million km (93 million miles).
Its physical data is being still evaluated and is less certain, but will improve as its distance decreases.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

ThreeFangCat 15 Jun 2011 02:50

An interesting footnote:
To professional astronomers, Elenin just isn't very interesting. Although 2012ers go on about it constantly (for now), the pro's are thinking, "What's all the fuss about?" Here's an example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt96UNBgTC0

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 17:18

That guy is awesome, just the way he talks and puts things was funny! :)

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 17:40

To professional astronomers, Elenin just isn't very interesting.

That is exactly true.

I don't think it will be visible with the naked eye. You probably need binoculars and a very dark spot.
And even then you probably will not see colour but some fuzzy greyish cloud-like thing.

Re: Had some questions to make an Informed decision

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 17:32

Why their is only one valid photo for it, seems like there would be a lot more photos. And the exact specs and data on comet elenin?

Anyone can snap Elenin pictures, I did too using a public available robotic telescope anyone can sign up to.
Here you can see that we snapped images of Elenin live on this forum
http://www.2012hoax.org/forum/t-353652/

Here is a moving image
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36JEpI-qQNI

It is perfectly where it should be as a regular comet.

We can still take images of Elenin but it is gets too low above the horizon to keep tracking from this part of Earth.

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 04:53

In terms of Saturn I meant that comets can be seen from that far, maybe I worded it wrong. But yes Saturn is huge and I think the 2nd biggest planet in our solar system behind Jupiter; might be wrong, been awhile since school. :p I know wiki is a great source of information, I was just getting confused with so many sites and news articles with different information. To be honest the picture I posted, which is the only non simulated pic I could find looks like the Ice Comet Hale Bob; which was an awesome site to see btw back in its day. With the Youtube part… I know it's Youtube, it's great for those WoW PvP videos, Why Linux owns Windows, and just corky random stuff. I wouldn't base the end of times off it tho, or take someones word that they have a buddy in Nasa and their text correspondence says it all lol. I do look at it tho and try to research someones claim, which is what I'm doing now and getting a second and third opinion from other people that have a better outlook on astronomy then I do.

After looking at some pics from here that you posted and from a couple other back page sites I asked on, I've gotten a lot of responses with pics and viable evidence that ya it's obviously not a dwaf star. If it was 4 times the size of Jupiter, which is like OMG friggin massive lol, it would be more noticeable at 1.8AU even if the gravity of the star made the light bend around it creating a gravitational lens; which is the argument that people are giving: "Elenin is truly a dwarf star that is so massive and can't be seen due to the gravity not reflecting the light back". If this was true then you would be able to see the mass of something 4 times the size of Jupiter which is somewhat: 492 x 10^9 even if light was curving around it due to gravity, I figure that there would be a telescope that couldn't miss the mass of the object due to its size; even if there was no light reflecting back, you wouldn't see light behind it which is true. This is all research I've done over the last 24-32 hours and taking a crash course in astrology! :)

In conclusion we're good for now, and for 'now" I mean, what evidence is presented is that we're going to die is false. I graduated with a degree: BS Computer Science, MS: Algorithm Design. Not saying I'm a pro astrologer, but I can see that something with a mass that big ripping through our Galaxy and no one able to find it is impossible; at least people wouldn't be able to see the bodies behind the huge dwaf star.

Only reason why I emphasize on 'now' is because it's a true fact that the world is someday going to end, and by 'end' I mean: now —-> Infinite. This isn't something to throw or waste your time thinking about. The world could end in 10k years to 100k years and so on… But go out there and get informed, read the data for yourself and formalize an opinion. For the love of god(Sorry I'm Catholic) :) research everything yourself before you make a decision, don't just look at one article and decide your fate. Be informative, ask questions, people will respect you for it. :D

Tomy2011 15 Jun 2011 16:59

Only reason why I emphasize on 'now' is because it's a true fact that the world is someday going to end, and by 'end' I mean: now —-> Infinite. This isn't something to throw or waste your time thinking about. The world could end in 10k years to 100k years and so on… But go out there and get informed, read the data for yourself and formalize an opinion. For the love of god(Sorry I'm Catholic) :) research everything yourself before you make a decision, don't just look at one article and decide your fate. Be informative, ask questions, people will respect you for it. :D

Well said, Paradox! It seems that your critical thinking is well developed. It really does.

JamesJJlm 15 Jun 2011 17:08

Not saying I'm a pro astrologer

I hope not….

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 17:19

I'm pro Computer Scientist tho… So if you ever need computer help or program designed, I'm your guy! :D

JamesJJlm 15 Jun 2011 19:32

I'm sure you meant astronomer. Astrology is the practice of fooling people into thinking you can predict the future by looking at the position of planets.

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 19:38

lol, I get the joke now! :P

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 17:44

Paradox6996, I am impressed at your learning skills.

Tomy2011 15 Jun 2011 17:53

Yeah, me too. Unsurprisingly, this kind of person never falls for the 2012 myths.

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 19:39

Paradox6996, some more feedback about the

"Elenin is truly a dwarf star that is so massive and can't be seen due to the gravity not reflecting the light back".

First of all if the light does not get back then you have a black hole.
Te minimal mass of a black hole is a 1.4 solar mass = $2.78474\times 10^{30}$ kg
The event horizon would be this:

(1)

\begin{align} r_{\text{sh}}=\frac{2 G M}{c^2} \end{align}

When you fill in the numbers then you get a radius of 4135 meters

Now at first this looks very small but it will get noticed because of gravitational lensing.
But it is not the lensing or the blocking light that will get make it stand out, it is the fact that all planets and even our sun will start to revolve around it.

Paradox6996 15 Jun 2011 19:50

Ya, what me around my roommate were talking about last night and looking up information on planets and black holes. I would be more concerned about the black hole than anything else. :)

---

"It isn't breaking the law until you get caught!"

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 20:17

Here I did calculate/simulated what the effects would be if a tiny brown dwarf would follow Elenin's path. (I used the therm red dwarf because I mixed up a episode of the SiFi Red Dwarf that I saw that night on TV)
For example Saturn would have lost 1000 days of his orbital period, because Saturn would have had the bad luck to be the longest in the gravitational influences of a brown dwarf because they both move slowly and Saturn was nearest it of all planets.

http://www.2012hoax.org/forum/t-350399#post-1134931

Outer planets are most sensitive to any incoming big masses and gets noticed up to 20 years back. They are more sensitive because both any incoming mass and the outer planets travel at a crawling speed.

Paradox6996 15 Jun 2011 20:47

I didn't think about the planets shifting if there was a brown dwarf star, which would make sense due to its mass and gravitational pull. I would notice a day missing and hope it was a Monday! :)

---

"It isn't breaking the law until you get caught!"

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 20:57

I didn't think about the planets shifting if there was a brown dwarf star

And 2012 crackpots also ignore the fact that if a brown dwarf pulls on the planets then the planets also pulls on the brown dwarf making its orbit completely aperiodic.

Trust me when you get deeper into it, the 2012 hoax explodes in the crackpots face. LOL
You actually pile up many flaws in their theories faster than they can create new ones.

The same for the CME, when you check how massive a CME is, and translate it to human size equivalences, then it is the same as expecting that when you blow a soap bubble towards a normal adult and expect that he would topple over. Even when you take that soap bubble magnetic, it is still foolish to even consider that it can do something because it is so light in comparison with a normal adult person.

Alene Y 16 Jun 2011 02:27

Hey )Paradox,
You don't need to be concerned about black holes either. They are formed by the collapse of a massive star, not by something small like comet Elenin. The one at the center of the galaxy is 26,000 light years away, so black holes are a complete non-issue.

Paradox6996 (guest) 15 Jun 2011 19:25

Ya it's kinda like the Y2K scare which was like are you people really serious that the world is going to end, nukes are going to fire, banks accounts are going to empty because a digit is going to go from 99 to 00 OMG watch out! :) The funny thing about that is they fixed all the software by the end of 97 or 98 to which took a matter of minutes and was no threat at all. The date changing to 00 would of just made the day in January wrong, but people were flipping out over it, and I was like I don't get it; but I also understand how computers work and was like I wished they did too.

With the 2012 problem I really looked into it because of an article my friend sent me that a 6 year old in class replied when his teacher asked 'What do you want to be when you grow up', and he said 'It doesn't matter because my mom said that the world was going to end at the end of next year'. I was like are you serious, and if it was I wouldn't tell my kids that. I read other articles about people killing themselves, kids being depressed, etc… and had to see what all the fuss was about and if there was in credibility to all the information out there, which most of it is made up crap people took from other videos and or pictures. I'm betting that these people see a couple videos or articles without even comparing it to the other side of the story and take their word for it. I don't mind crazy people being crazy as long as it stays in their crazy world, but when their making fake videos and corrupting our kids and general people then it's going to far and is pretty lame.

obaeyens 15 Jun 2011 20:25

Paradox6996, I completely agree.

The Y2K computer bug was a real problem, and the reason nothing happened was because companies actually went through all source code and saw it as a marketing opportunity to sell a new upgrade.

I actually got such a lunatic in 1999 claiming that computers are the sign of evil and we would all be marked with the 666. He had this cartoon book that he wanted to hand out to bystanders. I had a quick look at it and saw these pictures of some giant with a computer monitor head and earth quakes and volcano's. LOL

A lot of people ware talking about it, but no one took it serious except for this one friend that claimed that Paris would be hit by a meteor in 2000. Of course that never happened.

Alene Y 16 Jun 2011 02:21

Actually, the computer date would have been a problem if we hadn't made sure it was taken care of. Since all software had been written i n the 1900's, there were only 2 digits for the year. Computers would have read the year 00 as 1900 instead of 2000. That would have meant that things that were to happen on a date in 2000 wouldn't be initiated because the computer would take it as having been done in 1900. The company I worked for had us listing all our software and getting with the software suppliers to make sure it was taken care of, and getting updated versions where needed.
This, of course had nothing to do with the world ending. That part was just the silly millennialists thinking the world would end at the end of a thousand years. They also thought that at the end of the first millennium AD (or CE).

twweitth (guest) 20 Jun 2011 07:26

apparantly comet eleinin isnt coming any closer then 35 million kilometers (22 million miles) to earth!
source:http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-135

Alene Y 20 Jun 2011 07:34

That's right, twweitth.