Uh oh, it's July 15th, one of MC geryls (the master of cat-a-cleesims) "predicted" dates for "complex negative" sunspots arriving on the solar surface. Having tried as hard as I could over the last week or so to look at his claims on his website and make any sense of them, I'm still none the wiser. It appears to me that since his failed prediction April 19th, geryl has changed his claim. Before April 19th, his claim was:
A complex of 2 negative sunspots will appear around the following dates…
He then pedicts the next two dates as April 18-19th and July 14-15. So all these so called predictions are involving his "negative sunspots" and every prediction before April 19th was "confirmed" by him with the alleged appearance of these negative sunspots, as you can see from Geryls page:
August 1, 2010: One Negative Sunspot and a Complex eruption + 1 C flare
October 25-27, 2010: Negative Sunspot Complex and 4 C flares
January 21-23, 2011: Negative Sunspot Complex from 2 sunspots + 8 C flares
Ok we all know he thinks these negative spots are his brainchild to a certain extend and he's made a lot of noise about these complex negative sunspots being predicted by the Maya. But, rather oddly, his apparently "spot on" prediction of April 19th says this:
April 18-19, 2011: Sunspot Complex from 2 sunspots + 5 C flares + filament
Note the "negative" part has mysteriously vanished. It now looks as if he's saying simply that sunspots will appear. His prediction for July is:
A complex of 2 sunspots will appear around July 14-15-16-17, 2011.
Again the word "negative" is AWOL, so this prediction is basically saying that 2 sunspots will appear some time in a four day period? Why has his negative sunspots suddenly become unimportant to him? I don't know, but since his entire sunspot theory seems to relate to these complex negative sunspots, I find it weird that he isn't claiming to predict them anymore. He goes on to say that these sunspots will be "something similar to the sunspot complex of April 19th," but that tells us exactly nothing. "something similar" could mean anything. Am I looking at this the wrong way as it really looks to me like he's backing away from these "complex negative sunspots".
The great thing about science is, it's true whether you believe in it or not.
