Natural Disasters

Natural Disasters

Jessica (guest) 15 Jul 2011 23:21

Ok..so i've noticed that there has been a lot of rain and storms and that there have been quite a few natural disasters recently. Do you think this is proof 2012 is going to happen? I feel like natural disasters have picked up in the last year and it's really worrying me. Thanks!

Re: Natural Disasters

3WMElliott 15 Jul 2011 23:27

I feel like

Theeeeeres the issue. You feel like they've increased, but do you have data from every region around the globe? Do you have reports from each individual country or organization associated with the type of disaster? Because it's not feelings that would show an increase or not, it's not even news reports that would show an increase or not, but the cold hard data gathered by multiple groups across the world for decades.

And if you're concerned, they show no significant changes wherever you look, certainly nothing with regards to the world suddenly imploding under the weight of excess rain or cracking in half thanks to Earthquakes. You're fine.

Re: Natural Disasters

Tomy2011 15 Jul 2011 23:30

Ok..so i've noticed that there has been a lot of rain and storms and that there have been quite a few natural disasters recently.

No, there hasn't.

Do you think this is proof 2012 is going to happen?

Even if it really did increase, it doesn't prove anything.

I feel like natural disasters have picked up in the last year and it's really worrying me.

Feelings are not facts. The fact is… the weather is never 'average' at all. And you may be noticing a slight increase in the number of storms, but not a big deal.

Re: Natural Disasters

RickardM 15 Jul 2011 23:49

No, there hasn't.

Actually I have to disagree with you here. This year has indeed seen more severe weather than usually (manifested in different ways all around the world). The reason before were thought to be La Nina, but now NASA speculates that the lack of activity from La Nina is the cause for more severe weather (quite common though, happens every 2 - 7 years according to NASA. Of course, this has absolutelly nothing to do with 2012 or any impedning doomsday, rather it's a "new" discovery made about a regularly occuring phenomena.

Here's the NASA Science article

Other than that I totally agree with you Tomy, there simply is no averages when speaking of weather. It is bound to change constantly

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Re: Natural Disasters

3WMElliott 15 Jul 2011 23:58

Does weather = natural disasters, however? Heavy rains might lead to flooding, but does an increase in heavy rains always equate to an increase in flooding?

Re: Natural Disasters

RickardM 16 Jul 2011 02:16

I would count at least a few of these as natural disasters: "Record snowfall, killer tornadoes, devastating floods: There’s no doubt about it. Since Dec. 2010, the weather in the USA has been positively wild…"¹. And no, weather in general does not equate to natural disasters, but I think you can agree with me that severe weather (which in my book includes tornadoes etc) most likelly will result in an increase of natural disasters.

Footnotes

1. quote from the link in my post above

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

KAM1 (guest) 16 Jul 2011 05:00

So this whole La nina thing was totally wrong?

Astrogeek 16 Jul 2011 07:41

El Nino/La Nina are weather phenomena related to the temperature of the equitorial pacific. I don't see anyone claiming that they are "wrong" in the thread above.

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"Do you ever think about things you do think about?" - Henry Drummond to Matthew Harrison Brady in Inherit the Wind

Re: Natural Disasters

Awesomeee 16 Jul 2011 14:25

These stuff always happened Jessica , disasters and weather always did its normal , i would be more scared if they did not happen.

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KAM1 (guest) 16 Jul 2011 18:38

So natural disasters have been increasing then.
ISEE.

Awesomeee 16 Jul 2011 18:51

So natural disasters have been increasing then.

I dont think so

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No man knows the day nor the hour when the world will end.

Become a debunker and help out those that are being fed up with lies spread by False scientists going after you'r money.
Practice what you want to and dont give up on you'r dreams my dream is to become a basketball player 'NBA'

RickardM 16 Jul 2011 20:05

There's been slightly more natural disasters this year and last year, then previous years. But as I said before, there's an explanation to that and it happens quite frequently (above average that is), so there is absolutelly nothing to worry about. Some years will have more natural disasters and some years will have less, that's just how nature works.

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Last edited on 16 Jul 2011 20:34 by RickardM Show more

KAM1 (guest) 16 Jul 2011 20:10

So what year had the most natural disasters? in the 1990's?

Awesomeee 16 Jul 2011 20:23

So what year had the most natural disasters? in the 1990's?

I dont really know but 1990's had some

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No man knows the day nor the hour when the world will end.

Become a debunker and help out those that are being fed up with lies spread by False scientists going after you'r money.
Practice what you want to and dont give up on you'r dreams my dream is to become a basketball player 'NBA'

RickardM 16 Jul 2011 20:41

Yes, 1990's had quite a few natural disasters but not the most reported. I'm not perfectly sure on this, but I think that one of the record years (by amount of occurences) was 2010, i.e. last year. The biggest death toll reported was 1931, when massive floods in China killed millions of people (according to wiki).

Overall it seems as if the amount of natural disasters is becomming more frequent, which has been expected due to climate changes. Here are some graphs that indicate a rise in natural disasters, but there could be several reasons for the shown rise in amounts. Such reasons could be better detection and reporting of events, and an increase in death tolls is most likelly because of an ever growing population. As I said before, I'm not even sure there is an increase in natural disasters, but if it is then it's not because of 2012 or any thing like that. The latter I know for sure

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

KAM1 (guest) 16 Jul 2011 21:34

ah, so nothing to worry about?
Thanks

RickardM 16 Jul 2011 23:13

I'd say that if you end up in a flood, tornadoe or anything like that then you'd have a reason to worry. But in regards to 2012, then there's absolutelly nothing to worry about=)

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan