Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

Summary:

Evidence found for undiscovered comet that may threaten earth

Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

SJB UK (guest) 29 Jul 2011 14:00

Hello,

I just want to start off by saying thank you for such a wonderful website! I am relatively new to astronomy and as such worry when I do not understand something. I have found this web site and noticed there are some fantastic/ experienced astronomers helping to explain things.

I would be most grateful if someone could provide some perspective on the story in the link below - is this cause for great concern?

http://www.space.com/12450-unknown-comet-earth-threat-meteor-shower-evidence.html

Thank you in advance :-)

Re: Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

3WMElliott 29 Jul 2011 14:34

We've just been talking about it over at the end of this thread (just start reading at the post by dandona with the MSNBC link about the same story, and keep reading the replies till there isn't anything left to read).

The short story is: Is this a cause for concern? No.

Last edited on 29 Jul 2011 14:35 by 3WMElliott Show more

SJB UK (guest) 29 Jul 2011 14:37

Thank you - I will take a look now. Thanks for such a speedy response. I think you are all doing a fantastic job and you are very kind to give up your free time to do this.

Re: Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

TheGreatJuju 29 Jul 2011 14:36

It's possibly a newly-discovered comet, as every comet we know about once was. Note the last line of the article: "Chances are very small that the comet will actually hit us, as such impacts are rare in Earth’s history…." We're talking about time scales of possibly thousands of years.

This was also brought up in another thread recently.

http://www.2012hoax.org/forum/t-350848/obaeyens-this-is-for-you-to-debunk#post-1214701

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SJB UK (guest) 29 Jul 2011 14:38

Again, many thanks - I wish I was as knowledgable about science as you all :-)

Re: Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

Marko S 30 Jul 2011 08:30

Phil Plait has also wrote about this already:

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/07/28/new-meteor-shower-points-to-a-future-close-encounter/

Quote:

we can only collide with it if it happens to be at the spot in space where our orbits intersect at the same time the Earth is there (in February). If the comet happens to be there in August, we’d be on the other side of the Sun, and quite safe.

We’re also a pretty small target. Sure, the Earth seems big, but it’s about 13,000 km (8000 miles) across. Judging from the speed of the meteors seen, the comet would be tearing along at 35 km/sec when it passes. That means it could cross the entire disk of our planet in 6 minutes or so. That’s a pretty small window; 360 seconds out of the decades it takes the comet to circle the Sun once.

So again, it’s not something I’ll lie awake night fretting over.

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One's convictions should be proportional to one's evidence. - Sam Harris

Re: Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

RickardM 31 Jul 2011 20:00

This stuff has always been quite fascinating to me, and always raises a couple of questions (note: not concerns). Like for example, why would this be a cause for concern in anyones mind? I mean, the hypothetical collision must be about as likelly as any other NEO, just that we haven't noticed this one before? Or am I missing some vital point of this story? Furthermore, what's to say that the comet in question would do any considerable damage (in a global perspective) if it by some off chance were to hit earth?

Finally, when they calculate an estimated next approach like 2016 or 2023, how do they actually do that?

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Facts are stubborn things.
- Ronald Reagan

Re: Can someone please advise? Bit nervous about this...

Alene Y 01 Aug 2011 03:37

Hey Rickard,
I think you're right on the first part. There is no reason to suppose that this would have any more chance of impact than any other NEO.
I was also puzzled about how they came up with those years when they haven't even observed the comet. I don't think anyone can say what the size might be since it hasn't been found yet.